Market Matters Blog

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mississippi River levels have been steadily falling for nearly a month. That is not a welcome sight for farmers and grain shippers right now as harvest works its way north.

Less than two months ago the Upper Mississippi River was in flood stage, shutting down most of the locks and dams and stopping barges from coming or going there. The Mississippi River at St. Paul, Minnesota, crested at 20.19 feet on June 29. It wasn't until mid-July that all the locks and dams were fully open.

Fast forward to September, and the Mississippi River at St. Paul is at 3.5 feet above zero gauge and, in fact, most of the Upper Mississippi is now experiencing low water. But conditions in the Lower Mississippi River are much worse, especially at Memphis where the water level is minus 7.29 feet below zero gauge as of July 9. And at St. Louis, Missouri, the level is at plus 2.81 feet above zero gauge.

Barge groundings have been common, especially around the Memphis area, and the dredges are out helping to create a channel for barges to safely pass through. The Dredge Jadwin moved to Island 30, MM 783 to 785, and according to American Commercial Barge Line, there will be rolling 24-hour closures beginning Sept. 8. The Dredge Hurley is at Tarpley on the Lower Mississippi River, Vicksburg District, and there will be rolling 24-hour closures beginning Sept. 9.

Barge drafts have also been cut, and each foot of draft that is reduced means a barge's cargo is cut by 200 tons. This will cost shippers money as they are paying the same amount of freight to ship less. In addition, that could create the need for more barges to pick up the slack. On much of the Mississippi, a normal draft, the distance between the waterline and the deepest point of the boat, for a barge when river conditions are good, is about 12 feet at 1,500 tons.

"For a high percentage of 2024, the precipitation and river level story has been a significant departure from the past two drought-stricken years. However, as the amount of precipitation has diminished over the past month, water levels on the Mississippi River have unfortunately retreated as well," said Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition.

"This development is clearly unwelcome. Soybean and grain farmers have a number of headwinds confronting the industry. It is therefore essential that our supply chain is a facilitator of profitability, not an obstacle to it. Unfortunately, recent and current rail challenges along with the retreating water levels on the Mississippi River are serving as an impediment to farmer profitability. This coincides with a projected large 2024 harvest. This clearly will be an area of focus in the days and weeks to come."

USACE BEGINS CONSTRUCTION OF UNDERWATER SILL

On August 29, USACE, Louisiana District, in a news release said, "The operational trigger has been met for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to construct an underwater sill across the bed of the Mississippi River channel to arrest further upriver progression of salt water from the Gulf of Mexico.

"The Mississippi River's volume of water has fallen to a level that allows salt water to intrude upstream. Salt water from the Gulf of Mexico moves upriver in a wedge shape that may stretch up approximately 20 miles from the bottom to the surface of the river. Based on current river conditions and forecasts, the toe of the saltwater wedge is expected to reach River Mile 80 Above Head of Passes within the next 28 days, triggering construction of the underwater sill."

The Corps constructed a similar underwater sill in 1988, 1999, 2012, 2022 and 2023 at River Mile 64, near Myrtle Grove, Louisiana, to arrest the progression of saltwater intrusion. "This sill will be maintained until river flows increase and push the salt water downstream. At that point, the increased river flow will naturally erode the feature," said the Corps. (https://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/…)

POTENTIAL HURRICANE FORMING IN GULF OF MEXICO

A potential hurricane currently forming in the Gulf of Mexico could bring rains that could help boost water levels on the Lower Mississippi River, according to DTN Ag meteorologist John Baranick.

"It's been almost three weeks of no tropical activity during peak hurricane season, one that was forecast to be quite active," Baranick said. "We may be on the verge of a burst of tropical activity this week, though only one system is forecast to hit the U.S.

"The tropical storm may even reach hurricane status prior to landfall as it drifts northward toward the coast of Louisiana. It is forecast to cross the coast late Wednesday afternoon or early evening on Sept. 11. Interests near the coast should pay particular attention to the strength and track of the storm," said Baranick. "But the forecast continues to pull the storm northward up the Mississippi River Valley over the following couple of days. Though it would no longer be tropical, it may reach as far north as the Ohio River before it becomes a remnant low. Forecasts from there are more uncertain. A building ridge to the north should block it from moving across the Ohio River. But the steering winds are very weak at that time. It may not be a tropical low, but it could continue to produce heavy showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern quadrant of the U.S. into next week." Read more in Baranick's recent blog: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Barge lines and farmers as well, are hopeful the topical system can bring some relief to the Lower Mississippi River in time for harvest.

Mississippi River Memphis hydrograph: https://water.noaa.gov/…

Mississippi River at St. Louis: https://water.noaa.gov/…

Lock and Dam 1-10 hydrographs: https://www.weather.gov/…

USACE Sill information: https://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/…

Mary Kennedy can be reached at Mary.Kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @MaryCKenn

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