Market Matters Blog

USDA's not releasing Crop Progress reports due to the federal government shutdown, but some reliable DTN readers sent us their updates this week. The story below is a roundup of what they said.

We'll be doing a harvest roundup each week until the reports come back online (we might even keep doing them through harvest if you like our style), but they're reliant on your input! Please feel free to add an update on your harvest progress in the comments section below, or send them to me in an email.

Soybean Harvest Advances

Farmers made progress on soybean harvest this week, hoping to avoid issues with shattering and spoiling. Corn harvest also advanced this week, although high moisture kept combines at a crawl.

OMAHA (DTN) -- Combines continued to chug along this week with farmers making big strides in soybean harvest as well as some progress on corn.

Private analytical firm Informa Economics estimated soybean harvest advanced to 40% complete as of Oct. 13, which is about one week behind the five-year average. Last week, the general estimate of soybean harvest was that it was 22% complete.

USDA stopped issuing its weekly Crop Progress reports after the federal government shut down October 1.

Informa estimated corn harvest progressed to about 30% complete, compared to the 42% average. Last week, corn harvest appeared to be 20% complete.

"I think that a discrepancy's developed between corn and soybean progress this past week," DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson said, attributing it to concerns that soybeans could go bad if the weather turns sour and that corn may need more time to dry. Reports from the field seem to agree, especially in northern growing areas.

"Rain last week focused on the Northern Plains. There was much lighter rain in the Midwest (no more than a quarter of an inch), so that definitely helped on progress," Anderson said. "This week we'll see heavy rain again in the northern areas with much less moisture in the Eastern Corn Belt. So that should help progress from eastern Iowa on east through Indiana and Ohio."

SOYBEAN HARVEST IMPRESSES SOME, DISAPPOINTS OTHERS

Kevin Shockman, who farms in southeast North Dakota, said he finished soybean harvest late last week. Dry conditions from the end of June to early September likely took a toll on his soybeans with yield averaging less than 30 bushels per acre. He said the weather likely hurt his corn yields, too, because of the number of small ears and several spots in his fields with no ears at all.

Several farmers from Minnesota also got started on soybean harvest, and reported stronger yields than Shockman saw. Carl Larson, a farmer from central Kandiyohi County, said his yields are average. One 67-acre field yielded 47 bpa, an 89-acre field yielded 42 bpa and a 98-acre field yielded 56 bpa. That last field, however, was about 50% infected with white mold.

Last Thursday, a farmer from Freeborn County, Minn., estimated the soybean crop in his area was 25% harvested and yields were running 20% better than expected.

Iowa's soybean harvest was estimated at 29% complete last Thursday, according to an Iowa Soybean Association news release. Areas in the northwest appeared to be the furthest along, at 42% complete, while 20% was common in other areas.

Iowa State University field agronomist Clarke McGrath said soybean harvest is in high gear in the southwest part of the state. Farmers are trying to avoid issues with low-moisture beans shattering.

"A light switch went off and they are hitting beans hard," McGrath said in the Iowa Soybean Association release. Farmers in the area were hoping for soybean yields in the low to mid-40s in early September. Many are finding yields in the 50s, with some fields pushing 60 bushels per acre at about 12% moisture.

"Farmers from Creston to Schleswig are pleasantly surprised; shocked may be a better word," McGrath said. "Good genetics are a big factor. Those areas got a few timely rains and favorable temperatures at the right time."

Yield reports from northeast Iowa are more variable -- ranging from 35 to 70 bpa -- around Nashua.

"The real drama is in soybeans, where the harvest size is still up for grabs and a small difference either way could have a big impact on where prices go from here," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said. Monday morning, the November soybean contract was trading right at the 200-day average, which he said is a reflection of indecisiveness about the size of the crop.

"The November-to-July soybean spread still favors the November contract, a bullish sign; but the spread itself broke below the low of the past seven weeks on Friday, a sign of weaker demand on the commercial side of the market. The outlook for soybeans still has a slight bullish edge, but it is close to a coin flip," Hultman said.

MOISTURE VARIABLITY SLOWS CORN HARVEST

Pete Bardole, who farms near Jefferson, Iowa, said corn harvest is having a hard time getting started.

"The moisture is running from 13% to 27% on the same pass, and if there is replant it is over 30%," he said. "The yields we have been getting are all over the board. We haven't taken out a whole field of corn to know what they will average yet."

Other Iowa farmers are getting mixed results. On Justin Dammann's farm in Page County, his early corn harvest yields are ranging from 150 bpa to 180 bpa. "We still have quite a bit of both crops to harvest, so we're hoping to find stronger numbers," he said in the Iowa Soybean Association release.

Near Nashua, Iowa, corn yields are averaging 180 to 200 bpa, better than farmers there expected.

Pat Swanson, who farms in Wapello County, Iowa, said: "So far, we have harvested corn planted in May with yields ranging from 150 to 200 bushels per acre, with moisture from 18 to 23%. We expect the yields to go down as we get into the later-planted fields."

Ken Zahm has started harvesting corn to keep busy while he waits for some greener soybean fields to dry down. Moisture is around 27% and test weights range from 49 pounds to 51 pounds "Yields are okay," he said. "No bin buster."

Dryland Kansas farmer Ward Taylor said he's in one of the drier parts of Logan County. After harvesting 200 acres of dryland corn, his yield averaged 48 bpa with moisture ranging from 16-18%.

He said that's pretty average for his immediate area, but a farmer 10 miles to the east caught some timely rains and is "going to have some phenomenal crops for our area this year, 80-to-100-bushel corn and 110-to-120-bushel milo."

Big rains toward the end of summer came too late to help his dryland crops, but "at least we have some real good moisture now to start out a winter wheat crop."

DTN's Anderson estimates that winter wheat planting is likely 60% complete.

Please share updates on your harvest progress with DTN by contacting Cheri Zagurski at 402-399-6402 or cheri.zagurski@telventdtn.com.

Katie Micik can be reached at katie.micik@telventdtn.com

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