Market Matters Blog

Many of my regular readers know that I travel to Washington, D.C., each month for the major grain statistical report releases, like the one coming up this Friday. But I'm not going to make it out there this week. After discussing it with the DTN newsroom team and editor-in-chief Greg Horstmeier, we decided the risk of getting stranded in D.C. was too high and decided to cover the report from our home base in Omaha.

We came to the decision in the same way many farmers make choices about their marketing or production: by looking at the facts at hand and deciding on the course of action that best serves our purpose, in this case, getting USDA's estimates out in a timely manner.

This is what we knew this morning:

-- On Wednesday morning, forecasts were calling for 6 to 10 inches of snow in the D.C. metro area and our meteorologist suggested snowfall would be towards the high end. More than 1,200 flights were cancelled in and out of D.C.'s airports. Locals nicknamed it the "Snowquester," which was billed as DC's biggest snowstorm of the season.

-- I need to renew my Capitol Hill press credentials, which get me in the door to the USDA building. Because I don't live in D.C., I have to do this every few months.

-- Even if I got a flight in on Thursday, there were no guarantees I'd get there in time to make it to the Hill and complete my errands. Or, if 10 inches of snow stuck to the ground in DC, would I even be able to get to the Capitol building? And there just isn't quite enough time to do it on Friday morning before the report.

-- This is the lesser report in March. While people will be watching USDA's stocks numbers given the pace of exports and care about South American production estimates, the real market mover this month will be the Prospective Planting and Quarterly Grain Stocks.

So, what's the worst case scenario? I get to D.C. but can't renew my press credentials, making the trip for naught and causing delays in getting the information out. How likely is the worst case? This morning, the chances of that scenario playing out were a lot higher than they are as I write this afternoon. I hear almost no snow has stuck to the ground in D.C.

But that's what happens when you make decisions to avert risk. Sometimes a fact changes, and you look or feel like you overreacted, but you carry on. We made the best decision for our readers with the information we had about the risks involved, and we're sticking to the plan we devised for handling the report on Friday.

Right after the report is released at 11 a.m., we'll update our Top Stories and grain menu page with the need-to-know numbers from the report (domestic stocks, S. America production). Then we'll put together the table comparing March's estimates to prior reports and pre-report estimates that usually runs with the news story. The news story will come last.

We've got a team that will update the tables by commodity in the Grain Archives, and they're hopeful that'll take less than 10 minutes. Our U.S. and world summary tables might take a little longer, but we're hopeful we'll get you everything you need to know shortly after the report is released.

I'm just glad we didn't have to make this decision about the report later on this month, otherwise the risk of not being in D.C. would have been too great -- that one would be difficult to handle properly from the office and I'd have to risk ending up stranded at the airport or trying to talk my way through security at USDA. Let's just hope Mother Nature doesn't take the stage for an encore between March 26-28.

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