Fundamentally Speaking

The March prospective planting figures report is just the starting point for corn and soybean planted area, pending how fast spring seedings proceed as one can say the start of U.S. growing season begins in a couple of weeks.

That will steer trade along with the finish of the South American growing season, global demand (particularly as it pertains to the ongoing trade wars and its impact on the outside markets especially crude oil), the dollar, the stock market, and interest rates on how they influence the grain and oilseeds complex.

As we have witnessed over the past few seasons, Mother Nature can have a large say in whether farmer intentions turn into reality as we have seen big changes in both corn and soybean planted acreage from the March intentions into the June Acreage report and then from there to the final figures given in the annual production report based on the vicissitudes of weather.

This chart shows the percent of U.S. corn planted by April 30 and May 25 on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis is the acreage change for corn and soybeans from the March intentions to the final figure in 1000 acres.

Last year's corn planting pace started out a bit quicker than the prior year as 30% of the U.S. corn crop was in the ground as of the end of April vs the 26% on April 30, 2023, though below the long-term average of 32%.

Seedings slowed in May however as last May 25, 81% of corn was planted vs 87% on May 23, 2023, down from the 88% average.

Nonetheless, final corn area ended up 558,000 acres above the March prospective plantings report while soybean area was 540,000 acres higher, so all in all what farmers intended to put in the ground got planted and a shade more.

This is due to no real weather issues such as the cold and rain that impacted 2019 acreage, or the 2020 derecho storms.

Heavy June rains in parts of the Upper Midwest were probably the most influential factor in row crop acreage changes last year.

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