Fundamentally Speaking

A stabilization of growing conditions in Argentina, a record soybean crop by far being harvested in Brazil, uncertainty about the future of U.S. biodiesel and renewable biodiesel policy, and growing tariff fears are all weighing on the soybean complex.

While U.S. corn export sales may stay strong for another couple of months or so, the window has about shut on future U.S. soybean business to overseas customers as current 1.825 billion bushel (bb) export projection may prove too high.

This chart shows U.S. soybean sales and shipments as of the second week of February as a percent of the USDA's February WASDE export projection with those sales as a percent of the final figure plotted on the left-hand axis.

Reported on the right-hand axis is the percent change in U.S. soybean exports from the February WASDE projection to the final estimate.

Current sales as of last week's export sales report are 1.607 bb with shipments 1.418 bb and both, with the exception of the year ago figures, are the lowest since the 2019/20 season.

These are respectively 88.1% and 72.6% of the February WASDE projection, but both however are above the 25-year averages for this time.

Still, since 2000 there have been eight times the USDA's final soybean export projection came in below its February WASDE estimate including four of the last six years.

Furthermore, four of those cuts came when the sales as of second week of February as a percent of the Feb WASDE report were at an even higher percent than the 88.1% of this year.

Note that between China, Mexico and unknown destinations (which is likely to be China) there are still 226 million bushels of soybeans that have been sold but not shipped that may be in jeopardy if the threatened tariffs on our two largest soybean customers are imposed.

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.