Fundamentally Speaking

Despite a lack of buying from China, a strong valued dollar in the foreign exchange markets, and stiff competition from Ukraine, Brazil, and soon to be Argentina, U.S. corn exports have held up rather well.

Corn export inspections on the April 29 Export Sales and Shipments report were at 48.3 million bushels (mb), above the 47.4 mb pace needed to attain USDA's 2.10 billion bushel (bb) export projection.

To date, cumulative inspections are running 32% of year ago level when USDA were looking for our overseas sales to be up just 26%.

Nonetheless, USDA kept exports at 2.10 bb in the WASDE report earlier this month against some expectations that the figure would be revised higher.

Along these lines, this chart shows U.S. corn export sales and shipments in million bushels as of the third week of April on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis are those figures as a percent of the USDA's April WASDE estimates.

The figures in the green rectangle are the percent change in exports from the April WASDE to the final estimate.

Through last Thursday's export sales report total sales are 1.810 bb, which is 19.5% ahead of the year ago total and 86.2% of the April WASDE projection of 2.10 bb, which is slightly above the 2000-2024 average of 83.3% sold by this point in the marketing year.

Meanwhile total shipments are 1.253 bb which is 34.5% ahead of the year ago total and 59.7% of the April WASDE projection, and this is slightly above the 2000-2024 average of 59.0% shipped by this point in the marketing year.

Looking at the net change in exports from the April WASDE to the final figures suggests maybe a 50 mb increase in sales may be seen, certainly nothing large to change the needle in prices that while recently having stabilized, are still reading near 3 1/2 year lows.

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