Fundamentally Speaking

In prior blog pieces commenting on the 2023 U.S. growing season, we noted that while the more northern and southern areas of the country had rather dry conditions, temperatures for the most part were rather normal in the north but record or close to record highs in the southern regions.

This was reflected in crop yields where the Midwest states did reasonably well, especially those east of the Mississippi, as opposed to those in the Plains and deep South.

As we get close to the start of this year's season, we make mention of the fact that many of the top U.S. corn and soybean growing states ended 2023 with very dry soil conditions as measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI readings.

If moisture levels are not replenished by good late winter/early spring precipitation, this could pose a problem for crop development later this year.

This index is based on the principles of a balance between moisture supply and demand and generally ranges from -6 to +6, with negative values denoting dry spells and positive values indicating wet spells.

This chart shows the end of December 2022, April 2023, August 2023, and December 2023 PDSI readings for the top corn and soybean growing states and the US on the left-hand axis.

Reported on the right-hand axis is the rank of that states end of December 2023 PDSI reading with a 1 meaning it is the driest or most drought impacted with a 129 reading meaning it is the wettest.

We start off by noting the southern states remain exceptionally dry, especially Louisiana with that state in the grips of extreme drought with an end of the year PDSI reading of -4.70, the second worst since record started being kept in 1895.

MS with an end of the year PDSI reading of -3.31, the ninth worst and TX with an end of the year PDSI reading of -391, the tenth worst highlight the very dry conditions in the southern parts of the country.

Parts of the Upper Midwest also saw 2023 end on a very dry note with IA having a PSDI of -3.26, its 16th driest rating, MN at -3.00 its 17th worst PDSI rating and WI at -3.33, the 12th worst.

In fact, IL, IN, KS, and MO all have PDSI ratings below -2.50 indicating moderate drought and the U.S. end of Dec PDSI at -4.05 is the driest reading since 2012, and before that all the way back to 1963, at the 12th worst ever.

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