Fundamentally Speaking

It appears below-average corn and soybean ratings stem more from dry conditions as opposed to hot temperatures as most of the key producing states actually had July readings below average, with the exception of some southern states. Dry or even drought conditions appear to be the real culprit as those states having good yield prospects have had far greater amounts of precipitation than those states where row-crop conditions are quite depressed compared to average levels.

Along these lines, this chart shows the percent of 1895-2023 average January-July, June-July and July precipitation for the top corn and soybean states on the left-hand axis and end of July 2023 Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) readings on the right-hand axis.

As we noted in prior blog discussions, the corn and bean states that seem to be doing better and have higher yield potential are more south and east, especially the Delta, Southeast, and Lake States. Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Pennsylvania all had good rains and should see very good corn and soybean yields -- likely records in some places.

On the other hand, Minnesota, North Dakota and Texas have been notably dry, especially last month along with Iowa and Louisiana as all five of these states have been seeing well-below normal levels of precipitation since the start of the year.

Have seen talk about a rather dramatic turnaround in corn and bean conditions in Illinois and part of the reason is after a very dry May and June, Illinois was the beneficiary of some generous July rains as was Missouri, though they came later in the month for the Show Me state. Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania also had very good July rains, as did Kansas and Nebraska, though both of these states still have large areas of extreme drought based on extended dry conditions in the Plains going back to last year.

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