Fundamentally Speaking

USDA Export Projections for Soybeans Seem Reasonable

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst
Chart by Joel Karlin, DTN Contributing Analyst

Heading into this week's WASDE report seeing that trade estimate for 2022/23 U.S. soybean stocks unchanged at 225 million bushels (mb) for as opposed to corn, our export sales have held up at a pace where current USDA projection of 1.990 billion bushels (bb) seems reasonable.

This chart shows the U.S. soybean export sales & shipments as of the fourth week of February in million bushels on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis are these sales and shipment figures as a percent of the USDA's February WASDE export projection.

Also plotted on the right-hand axis is the current shipment to sales ratio halfway through the marketing year while the figures in yellow rectangles are the change in U.S. soybean exports from February WASDE to the final figure in million bushels.

Last week's export sales report showed total exports since the marketing year started at 1.794 bb with 1.529 bb shipped or 85.2% of what's been sold, and these sales are 90.1% and shipped 76.8% of Feb USDA projection of 1.990 bb.

Both of these figures are above 2000-2022 averages of 89.4% and 74.0% respectively suggesting no need to lower current overseas sales projection later this week.

In fact, total sales as of the halfway point in the marketing year of 90% or more of February USDA export projection often but not always presage an increase in this projection in subsequent WASDE reports if not the final number.


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