Fundamentally Speaking

Corn Futures Fall to Lowest Levels Since Late August

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst
Chart by Joel Karlin, DTN Contributing Analyst

In the WASDE report released earlier this month they did lower global corn production by a mere 350,00 metric tons (mt) to 1,168.39 million metric tons (mmt) but that is down 49.1 million tonnes or 4% from last year and as result world ending stock down 430,000 tonnes from the October estimate and off 6.918 million from the prior season.

300.76 mmt, other than two years ago, is the smallest world corn stocks figure in eight seasons.

This graphic shows the world, world less China and large exporter corn ending stocks in 1000 tonnes on the left-hand axis vs. the world, world less China and large exporter corn stocks-to-use ratio on the right-hand axis.

The large exporting nations are Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine, and the U.S.

The world corn stocks-to-use ratio at 25.6% has been stuck at this level for the past three straight seasons and is the lowest figure since the 2013/14 season.

With China processing close to 210 million tonnes of corn (or so they say) which is more than 2/3rds of the world total, we decided to take them out of the equation.

The world less China stocks is 94.6 million which is down from last year's 98.54 million tonnes and is the second lowest since the 2013/14 season.

The 2022/23 world stocks-to-use ratio less China at 10.8% is exactly the same as last year and other than the 10.2% figure two years ago and the two sub 10% levels seen in 2011/12 and 2012/13 is the lowest since 2000.

Finally looking at the stocks of the planet's six major corn exporting nations at 52.3 million tonnes is a bit higher than the year ago 48.8 mmt is the third lowest since the 2013/14 marketing year while the large exporter stocks-to-use ratio at 12.1% is also the third lowest since the 2012/13 season.

The bottom line is that competitor supplies and global supplies as measured by the stocks-to-use rations are still very tight, but the fact is that U.S. export sales have lagged as implementation and now extension of the Ukraine grain export corridor deal, China seeking alternative suppliers such as Brazil and the possible loss of major market Mexico due to GMO concerns seems to be outweighing the tight world corn situation at least for now.


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