Fundamentally Speaking

Global Corn Output Sees Largest Year to Year Decline in Over 30 Years

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst
Chart by Joel Karlin, DTN Contributing Analyst

At a time when the world needs more, not less, feed production to provide for a hungry world, global corn production this year will fall 47.2 million metric tons (mmt) from what was produced in the 2021/22 season.

This is the third largest decline ever in quantity terms and the largest drop-off in 30 years, down 3.9% from the prior year which is the third largest percentage decline in at least 25 years.

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Part of that is due to less harvested acreage, off 3.92 million hectares in the 2022/23 season from the year prior which is the biggest year to year drop in world corn harvested area since the 1997/98 season, with the loss of Ukrainian farmland to war one of the main reasons for this.

The other reason is rather poor yields for a number of the world's top producers, reflected in this graphic that shows the percent deviation from the 25-year trend for the top global producers and the world as a whole.

The European Union, seeing one of the worst corn crops ever as their estimate USDA yield which many consider too high at 6.53 metric tons per hectare, off 17.8% from the long-term trend and likely the worst negative deviation from trend ever, while U.S. yields are down 2.5% from trend, our worst performance since the 2012/13 season, along with Chinese yields off 0.8% and Ukraine's seen down 5.8%.

With USDA projecting Argentine and Brazilian yields below trend for the 2022/23 season, all key corn producers are seen having below trend yields and that appears to be unprecedented, and why the world corn yield pegged at 5.77 mt/ha, 3.3% below trend, would be the poorest result since the 2012/13 season.

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