Fundamentally Speaking

Corn At, Beans Below 10-Year Average for New Crop Exports

Chart by Joel Karlin, DTN Contributing Analyst

This graphic shows new crop U.S. corn and soybean sales for the year starting September 1 in million bushels (mb) on the left-hand axis and these sales as a percent of the USDA's July WASDE export projection on the right-hand axis.

Aided by the strong Chinese buying spree over the past few weeks, 2020/21 corn sales at 302.7 mb are what appears to be the second highest level ever for this time of year next to the 314.5 mln sold in the 2013/14 season.

Soybean sales on the books for next year at 381.6 mb are the highest since the 2014-15 season and other than the 2012-2015 period are the highest ever for mid-July.

As a percent of the July WASDE export projections however, the figures are not quite as impressive.

With the current new crop corn export projection of 2.150 billion bushels (bb), these sales are 14.1% of that figure, also the highest since 2013/14 but just slightly above the ten-year average of 13.3%.

With the USDA export estimate for soybeans at 2.050 bb, next year's sales are 18.6% of that and though the highest in four years, are well below the ten year average of 21.6%.

Keep in mind USDA is looking for corn and bean overseas sales up 375 mb and 400 mb respectively from the current marketing year.

For corn, that is a 21.1% increase from this year and other than the recovery after the 2012 drought, a year to year jump in our exports of that magnitude has not seen since the 1998/99 season.

For soybeans, that is a 21.4% increase from this year and other than the recovery after the 2012 drought, would be the largest percent increase in our exports since the 2004/05 marketing year.


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