With stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat at or close to record levels in both the U.S. and globally, the idea is that world yields of these key commodities are increasing at a faster rate than demand.
Newer hydrid seeds increasingly resistant to a variety of adverse conditions, larger equipment and more precise input application aided by satellite technology offers the promise of greater food supplies to the world populace.
To see if this is actually the case we plotted world corn, soybean and wheat domestic consumption in 1000 metric tons vs. global corn, soybean and wheat yields in metric tons per hectare from 2000 to 2020.
We then grouped the data into two sections from 2000-2010 and 2011-2020 and calculated the capitalized annual growth rate for each of the six categories.
For corn, demand increased by an average of 3.17% per year in the first ten-year period slowing to 2.74% per year from 2011 to 2020, but this still exceeded the per annum percent increase in corn yields at 1.97% from 2000 to 2010 slowing to a 1.26% annual increase from 2011 to 2020.
A similar pattern was seen for soybeans with the annual percent increase in demand exceeding the increase in yield for both time periods with demand and yield growth down in 2011-2020 vs. the 2000-2010 period.
Wheat however is opposite in every respect for demand that increased by an average of 1.09% was topped by the average annual increase in yields of 1.19% in the first ten year period with the annual percent increase in demand accelaerating to 1.39% from 2011 to 2020, but yields increased at an even faster rate of 1.61%.
A final note though the figures are not included, global corn harvested area rose by an annual rate of 1.49% in the first ten-year period and fell slightly to 1.45% from 2011 to 2020.
Soybean harvested area expanded by an annual 3.12% from 2000 to 2010 slowing to a 1.71% rate for the second ten-year period, while wheat harvested area rose by an aveage 0.47% per annum from 2000 to 2010 but showed no growth whatsoever the past decade.
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