Fundamentally Speaking

Records for soybeans in the U.S. across the board in terms of output, acreage and yields with each crop report from August till the final one this week higher than the prior forecast.

The bottom line was a 2014 production at 3.97 billion bushels with a yield of 47.8 bushels per acre (bpa), up 0.3 from the November estimate and 3.8 bpa above the old record set last year.

This graphic shows the actual 2014 soybean yield in bushels per acre for the U.S. and the top producing states, that yield as a percent of the 20 year trend and this year's estimated 20 year trend yield.

Note that half of the top 18 producing states produced record yields along with the U.S.

Only one state, Michigan had a 2014 yield below its estimated 20 year trend with MN at trend.

Similar to corn, a wet cold spring and an early start to winter last fall prior to some fields being harvested resulted in the Upper Midwest states have lower yields relative to other parts of the country.

Conversely, conditions were stellar in the south where AR, LA., MS, NC and TN had 2014 final soybean yields at least 118% of their respective 20 year trends.

The state of Louisiana did particularly well as their 57.0 bpa yield was not only tops among the largest producing states but a whopping 8.5 bpa above their prior high set just one year ago.

Note that Nebraska has the highest estimated trend yield for soybeans next year at 54.4 bpa, just above this year's yield.

(KA)

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