Fundamentally Speaking

There will be a slew of government reports issued January 12 including the final 2014 U.S. corn and soybean production, the monthly supply-demand report, the quarterly grain stocks numbers as of December 1, and the first estimate of 2015 U.S. winter wheat seedings.

After this, the next set of figures from the USDA that will be of any influence will be at their annual agricultural outlook conference in February.

At that time the initial USDA forecast of the 2015/16 balance sheets for the major crops will be furnished. Although these numbers are highly tentative, based mostly on computer projections, there is quite a bit of interest among the trade as to what the USDA is thinking in this regard.

Already there is speculation that the USDA's first stab will have bearish soybean figures linked to a huge increase in prospective 2015 U.S. soybean acreage and the largest beginning stocks in eight seasons.

The accompanying chart shows the first USDA yield estimates for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat given at the Ag Outlook forums from 1998 to 2014.

To each there is a trend-line attached with the projected 2015 trend calculated for each in bushels per acre (bpa) that are listed in the box within the graphic.

The 2015 trend corn yield is 170.5 bpa and that is above the year ago 165.6 bpa figure though below the last 2014 estimate issued in November at 173.4 bpa.

The trend soybean yield is 44.9 bpa and that is down from the 2014 Ag Outlook yield of 45.2 bpa and well below the actual 2014 yield last projected at 47.5 bpa.

For wheat, the projected yield of 45.4 bpa is also below the 2014 Ag Outlook projection of 45.8 bpa though quite a bit higher than the final 2014 all wheat yield of 43.7 bpa.

(KA)