Fundamentally Speaking

The November crop production report indicated the 2014 national soybean yield would be 47.5 bushels per acre (bpa), a new record topping the prior high set the year prior and also in 2009 at 44.0 bpa.

With the USDA increasing its yield estimate each time in the September, October and now November reports, history suggests a further rise in the final crop report to be released early January next year.

Still it does not appear yields will climb to as high as 50.0 bpa as had been speculated earlier in the year based on phenomenally high crop ratings and ample late season rains.

Still depending on which trend yield is used this is one of the best U.S. soybean crops ever and may be difficult to repeat next year.

Along these lines the accompanying graphic shows actual U.S. soybean yields in bushels peracre along with the 10, 20, 30 and 40 year trendlines.

This year's yield is respectively 6.5%, 6.7%, 6.7%, and 7.8% above the 10, 20, 30 and 40 year trend, the best performance in this regard since 1994.

Extrapolating into next year, prospective 2015 soybean yields calculate to be 45.0, 45.0, 44.9 and 44.3 bpa for the 10, 20, 30 and 40 year trend.

Similar to what has been noted in corn, the very poor 2012 results seem to have suppressed the 10 year trend to some degree.

The 40 year trend increases at a rate of 0.44 bpa per year, the 30 year at a .43 bpa pace, the 20 year also at 0.43 bpa while the 10 year trend increases at a 0.27 bpa pace.

Using their new weather adjusted crop model, the USDA at its February Agricultural Outlook session in February pegged the 2014 soybean yield at 45.2 bpa and based on that trend their initial 2015 yield forecast should be close to 45.9-46.0 bpa.

(KA)

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