Fundamentally Speaking

North Dakota Corn Seeding


By Joel Karlin
Contributing Analyst

We sense that the corn market may be getting a little concerned about the persistent cold and wet pattern in the Midwest that at best will push the bulk of plantings to late April at best.

Some states look to have seedings start in May and one of those certainly will be North Dakota.

Given its northern location, corn seedings here typically start in May but this year due to very cold soil temperatures and very heavy snowpack there are legitimate spring flooding concerns. 

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The reason this matters is over the years corn planted acreage in North Dakota has ballooned with the March Prospective Plantings report show intentions at 4.10 million acres, up 21% from last year’s record high.

This is more than four times the acreage seeded as recently as 2001 with this state now accounting for 4.2% of total U.S. corn seedings, double the level seen back in 2006.

This graphic shows the percent change in ND corn acreage from the March planting intentions report to the final crop production figure vs. the percent of the crop planted by May 15.

No surprise that the latest planted years in general show actual acreage contracting from the March intentions to the final production report and vice-versa.

1995, 2009, and 2011 with May 15 plantings of 9%, 18%, and 14% respectively are associated with acreage declines of 17.6%, 15.2%, and 10.8%.

On the other hand the year 2000, 2004, and 2012 had May 15 seeding rates of 74%, 82%, and 86% saw actual corn acreage increase by 8.0%, 12.5%, and 5.9%.

There are some anomalies such as 1996 and 1997 but for now the 2013 intended acreage figure of 4.10 million looks quite optimistic.

(KA)

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Comments

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unkown farmer
4/22/2013 | 11:54 AM CDT
I am from the north central part of south dakota and I think that most farmers in the area will try to stick to there plans for now but if we get delayed to much longer weather it be snow or rain its going to make it difficult to get more corn acres out..... late planted spring wheat, soybeans or sunflower may be a better option rather than running into high moisture corn in late fall.
Unknown
4/18/2013 | 11:30 AM CDT
I'm a North Dakota farmer, one who planned to double my corn acres, again. I won't be in the field by May 15, and I have plans to plant less than half of what I did last year into corn. I have lots of tile, and better drainage than most in my area, but still, when the snow melts, we will have to sit through the flood here in the Red River Valley. -Jay Gudajtes
Young Farmer
4/15/2013 | 1:52 PM CDT
If you look at the planting intentions report the states that are supposed to be providing more acres of corn are the states that are receiving all of this snow and lack improved drainage. These acre gains surely are unrealistic with the current weather patterns. This should defenitly raise some concerns.