Fundamentally Speaking

Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

In a prior piece, we noted that the first crop condition ratings for the 2013 U.S. winter wheat crop were the worst ever going back to 1986.

Another week has passed and those dismal rating shave slipped even more.

We know the national crop ratings are bad but were curious as to what states or region of the country was dragging down the national figure.

Using our usual ratings system where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for VP, 4 for P, 6 for F, 8 for G, and 10 for EX and then sum the results we looked at the first fall winter wheat conditions for each of the top 18 producing states and the U.S. as a whole.

These initial crop ratings were tabulated for this year, the 2000-2011 average, and the low point for the 2000-2011 period.

The U.S. rating is below the average and below the 2000-2011 low and as mentioned is the lowest initial crop rating since conditions reports were first released in 1986.

CO, KS and NE also have initial winter wheat crop ratings the lowest since 2000.

In fact Nebraska’s crop rating of 482 has never been lower as is the case for Colorado while this is the lowest initial rating for Kansas since 1991.

No surprise here for as mentioned in the past, the horrific drought which torched U.S. row crops over the summer has migrated west covering much of the Central and Southern Plains in addition to the Western Corn Belt.

The affected area includes KS, the largest wheat producing state, which helps explain its impact on the national crop.

Though there appears to be little relation between early year crop conditions and final yields it is likely that this year’s winter wheat crop will enter dormancy in the worst shape in at least 25 years.

Joel Karlin, Western Milling

(KA)