Fundamentally Speaking

By Joel Karlin
Contributing Analyst

Never too early to start talking about what the trend yield should be for 2013 U.S. corn, especially after a third year in a row of below trend yields, each worse than the last which is unprecedented in modern history.

The accompanying graphic shows the estimated 2013 corn yield for the top 18 growing states and the U.S.

These linear trend yields use 20 years’ worth of data, the 1992-2011 range and the 1993-2012 range.

Also included are USDA’s October estimate for 2012 yields for the top states and the U.S., all expressed in bushels per acre.

2012 was a disastrous year for most states though that was not the case for NC and TX whose yield this year are above next year’s estimated trend.

The bottom line is that for most states and certainly the U.S., dropping 2012 out of the 20 year trend calculations results in a higher yield.

For instance, the 20-year linear trend for the U.S. using the 1992-2011 data is 161 bushels per acre but the 1993-2012 data results in a 157 trend yield calculation, a figure 2.6% below the 1992-2011 trend.

Other states showing large differences in the two trend yield calculations include IL at 6.3%, IN at 5.3%, KS at 5.2%, KY at 7.9%, MO at 6.2%, and SD at 4.5%.

It will be interesting where the USDA estimates the 2013 yield at their annual Feb Ag Outlook though they have already gone on record as saying it will be higher than many in the trade will use.

(KA)

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