Canada Markets

With mostly positive anecdotal reports coming from the combines, it will likely be a surprise to no one that Statistics Canada's second model-based production estimate came in higher than its first -- for the most part anyway. A slight reduction was seen for oats and corn, but more on that later. The biggest jump was found in the all-wheat category with 1.076 million metric tons (mmt) added to the Aug. 28 production estimate. As you can see in the accompanying chart, that takes the current estimate (in green) to the second highest wheat production level of the century, only behind the bin-busting crop of 2013. Let's hope the logistical challenges presented by that crop don't arise again.

It is worth noting the updated all-wheat estimate of 36.624 mmt not only surpasses last year (at 35.939 mmt) but last month's 35.548 mmt (in orange), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) August estimate of 34.855 mmt (in yellow), and Sept. 12 USDA estimate of 36 mmt (in grey). With that, there seems to be a growing consensus with the year starting out so dry comparing it to the drought of 2021, only to see excessive rainfall hit many of the same areas -- resulting in multiple crop stages that affected not only harvest but sample quality; the end result seems to be much better on average than expected.

Breaking it down, on a percentage basis, durum wheat had the greatest increase from last month with 7.5% added to production (457,000 mt). That takes the crop up to 6.535 mmt if realized compared to AAFC's August estimate of 5.993 mmt and last year's 6.36 mmt total.

The spring wheat production estimate was increased by 616,000 mt from last month to stand at 26.608 mmt, up from 26.515 mmt last year and AAFC's August estimate of 25.992 mmt.

The barley production estimate was increased into the range that others were already expecting with the 237,000-mt bump, taking it to 8.228 mmt from 7.991 mmt last month thanks to increased yield expectations. That comes close to AAFC's August estimate of 8.3 mmt and slightly above USDA's 8.2 mmt projection, not to mention surpassing last year's 8.144-mmt crop.

Corn production was one exception that had a slight decrease in estimated production compared to last month. At 15.5 mmt, it came in slightly below last month's 15.553 mmt forecast and USDA's projection of 15.55 mmt, yet still above AAFC's August estimate of 15.25 mmt. Even with the decline in yield thanks to a hot and dry season affecting eastern Canada's crop, it would surpass last year's total of 15.345 mmt. According to AAFC's August update, increased imports and decreased exports will both be needed to allow for a slight increase in domestic use based on that production.

Sticking with the grains, oat production also had a small reduction in the production estimate on Wednesday. Statistics Canada pegged 2025 oat production at 3.370 mmt, down from 3.393 mmt last month and below the 3.395 mmt estimated by AAFC in August, also still slightly below USDA's prediction of 3.54 mmt.

Turning to the oilseeds, canola surprisingly enough had quite a quiet outcome with only a minor increase in the production estimate seen. Statistics Canada pegged the 2025 crop at 20.028 mmt, up slightly from its August estimate of 19.937 mmt, but still below the AAFC August estimate of 20.1 mmt. USDA had been the more optimistic one early on at 19.25 mmt but that had since been outdone by the other two. With Friday's September update, the USDA bumped its forecast up to 20 mmt as well.

Sticking with the oilseeds, Statistics Canada is looking for soybean production to be 118,000 mt above its last month's estimate but still falling nationally to 7.134 mmt from 7.568 mmt last year thanks to lower yield expectations, both in the East and in Manitoba. For comparison, AAFC's August update pegged the crop at 7.110 mmt while USDA left its estimate for the crop at 7.0 mmt on Friday. All very similar, suggesting a tighter supply in the coming winter at a time when China may be looking for alternate sources of soybeans should the trade dispute with the U.S. carry on.

Statistics Canada will issue the final survey-based production estimates on Dec. 4.

**

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.