Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported Canada's canola crush at 936,593 metric tons (mt), down slightly from the previous month while close to the four-month average and above 900,000 mt for a fifth consecutive month.

This volume is 7% higher than the same month in 2023, 15.1% higher than the three-year average for this month and the fifth highest monthly volume crushed on record. As seen on the attached chart, the monthly volume is above the volume needed this month to reach the current AAFC forecast of 10.5 million metric tons (black line), while for the fifth consecutive month.

The cumulative crush of 5.514 mmt during the first six months of 2023-24 is up 12.7% from one year ago and 13.1% higher than the three-year average for this period. The total crush durng the first half of the crop year is approximately 264,000 mt higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) forecast of 10.5 mmt.

According to Statistics Canada data, the oil content averaged 42.5% for the month, down very slightly from the previous two months. This remains close to the highest monthly oil content seen since August 2021. Over six months, the average content is calculated at 42.4%, which compares to the 2022-23 average of 41.7% and the three-year average of 42.3%.

A ProphetX chart approximating the move in the ICE Canola Board Margin Index shows a mean index of $179/mt for January, which compares to $194.18/mt for the previous month, calculated using continuous active futures. The incentive to crush continues to remain high.

Statistics Canada's January report also includes 153,923 mt of soybeans crushed, the largest volume crushed in three months. The January crush was down 5.9% from the same month in 2023 and down 1.5% from the three-year average for this month. The cumulative crush of 774,690 mt during the first five-months of the row-crop crop year is down 1.9% from one year ago and 0.6% higher than the three-year average. Over five months, the pace of crush is ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast of 1.750 mmt, which was revised 150,000 mt lower in their January supply and demand outlook for 2023-24.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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