Canada Markets

Exports of Canadian wheat (excluding durum) through licensed facilities have exceeded the volume needed to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)export demand forecast in eight of the past 10 weeks, assuming the volume shipped in the combined weeks of 21/22 were shipped equally between the two weeks.

In the most recent data for week 25, or the week ending Jan. 21, 383,300 metric tons (mt) is reported shipped from licensed terminals, down only slightly from the previous week but still above the volume needed this week to reach the current AAFC forecast of 20 million metric tons (mmt).

Cumulative wheat exports (excluding durum) total 10.166 mmt, up 6.7% from one year ago, while 22.2% higher than the three-year average and appears to be a record pace for this period. AAFC's January estimates saw the forecast for 2023-24 exports left unchanged at 20 mmt after revising this forecast 2 mmt higher in December, which represents a 3% drop from 2022-23.

With the likelihood of at least 300,000 mt of wheat shipped in week 26, cumulative exports over the first half of the year will be approaching 10.5 mmt and would project forward to a crop year total of 21 mmt, representing a record volume shipped.

When the seasonality of wheat shipments are considered, we see that on average over the past five years, week 25 licensed exports represented 44.7% of total crop year exports. The five-year average pace would project forward to total exports of 22.7 mmt, a volume likely out of reach due to lack of available supplies.

The USDA's attache report, the Canada: Grain and Feed released today includes a 23.3 mmt estimate for Canada's all-wheat exports, down from the official USDA estimate of 24 mmt, while in line with AAFC's 23.2 mmt forecast. This forecast is broken down to include 20 mmt of wheat exports and 3.2 mmt of durum exports.

Cumulative exports of durum at 1.519 mmt are only slightly behind the steady pace needed to reach the current 3.2 mmt forecast.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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