Canada Markets

Friday's USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports showed no change for Canada's all-wheat production estimate at 31.950 million metric tons (mmt), consistent with Statistics Canada's official estimate released in December. One change made by the USDA was a 500,000-metric-ton (mt) increase in its forecast for Canada's exports of all-wheat to 24 mmt, which is 800,000 mt higher than AAFC's forecast and 1.6 mmt or 9.6% lower than realized in 2023-24. As of week 23, Canada's cumulative durum exports are roughly 68,000 mt behind the pace needed to reach the current 3.2 mmt durum export forecast, while wheat exports (excluding durum) are roughly 547,000 mt ahead of the pace needed to reach the current 20 mmt forecast.

The January Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report from the USDA shows no change in the USDA's forecast for Canadian canola production at 18.8 mmt from its December estimate, close to 500,000 mt higher than Statistics Canada's official estimate of 18.328 mmt. This month's estimates saw a 50,000 mt reduction in the USDA's estimate for Canadian canola exports to 7.650 mmt, which is now 50,000 mt lower than Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) 7.7-mmt estimate. This month's changes also included a 25,000 mt increase to the forecast for domestic disappearance to 11.075 mmt, higher than AAFC's 10.8 mmt estimate. The USDA estimates Canada's ending stocks at 1.681 mmt, higher than the 1.450 mmt estimate from AAFC.

The USDA left its forecast for Canada's soybean production unchanged at 6.981 mmt in January, slightly higher than AAFC's 6.722 mmt forecast. At the same time, the USDA is less optimistic when it comes to Canada's export potential, pegged at 4.550 mmt, below AAFC's 4.8 mmt forecast released in December. According to Statistics Canada data as of November, cumulative exports are up 3.9% from the same three-month period in 2022-23, while AAFC is currently forecasting exports to rise 13.7% year-over-year.

The USDA has left its forecast for Canadian corn production unchanged this month at 15.08 mmt, equal to Statistics Canada's official estimate. The USDA continues to hold on to a 3.2 mmt corn import forecast for Canada, while AAFC has revised its forecast lower to 2.5 mmt. With larger supplies forecast by the USDA, exports are forecast slightly higher than AAFC (50,000 mt), while domestic use is estimated 647,000 mt higher, leaving ending stocks close to AAFC's estimate of 2 mmt.

The USDA's forecast for Canada's barley and oat production is consistent with Statistics Canada's November estimates.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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