Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported Canada's merchandise imports up 1.9% in November while exports fell 0.6%, leading to a drop in Canada's trade surplus from $3.2 billion to $1.6 billion in November, a fourth consecutive trade surplus.

Canada's exports fell for the first time in five months, with a drop in metals and aircraft and transportation equipment exports leading the move. Exports reported for the broad farm fishing and intermediate food products fell for a second month to $4.9062 billion, down 19.4% from the same month in 2022 and the lowest reported in three months.

The following is a look at trade data for select crops and crop products, with a focus on crops that are most fully explained in the monthly data when compared to the Canadian Grain Commission's weekly statistics.

Statistics Canada reported 249,472 metric tons (mt) of lentils exported in December, the largest volume shipped in six months. Measured in the volume of exports shipped, India was by far the largest destination with 39% of the volume shipped to this country. Cumulative shipments of 692,340 mt are down 17% from the same period in 2022-23 and down 8.3% from the five-year average. In December, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) revised its export forecast higher by 200,000 mt to 1.6 million metric tons (mmt), while current exports have achieved 43.3% of the current total; exports are ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Dry pea exports totaled 132,412 mt in November, the smallest volume shipped in three months. Measured in value of shipments, the largest amount was shipped to China, accounting for 63% of the total value shipped. At the same time, the 91,977 mt shipped to China was well below the 241,412 mt shipped in the previous month. Cumulative pea shipments total 976,576 mt, up 6.3% from one year ago and down 20.2% from the five-year average. Cumulative shipments have reached 51.4% of the current AAFC forecast of 1.9 million metric tons, a forecast that was left unchanged in their December estimates. Exports are ahead of the pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast.

Chickpea exports in November totaled 22,799 mt, the largest volume shipped in nine months, with the largest volume shipped to Turkey, where 30% of the total value of shipments was destined. Cumulative shipments total 69,220 mt, down 2.3% from the same period in 2022-23 while 57.4% higher than the five-year average. Cumulative shipments have reached 57.7% of AAFC's 120,000 mt forecast, well ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Canary seed exports in November reached 9,891 mt, the highest volume shipped in five months. Measured in dollar value, 45.5% was shipped to Mexico. Cumulative shipments total 30,616 mt, down 33.4% from a year ago and 38.5% below the five-year average. Exports have reached 22.7% of AAFC's forecast exports of 135,000 mt, below the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Mustard shipments in November reached 8,641 mt, the highest volume shipped in five months, with 60% of the total value shipped destinated for the United States. Cumulative exports total 29,857 mt, down 28.7% from a year ago and 19.8% below the five-year average. AAFC lowered its forecast for mustard deliveries by 10,000 mt in December, to 115,000 mt, while current exports have reached 26% of the forecast, behind the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Flax exports reached 14,208 mt in November, the largest monthly volume shipped this crop year. Measured in value, 81% was shipped to the U.S. Exports to China during the first four months total 4,839 mt, up from 1,451 mt reported for the same period in 2022-23 while well-below the 17,591 mt three-year average for this period. Cumulative exports over four months total 48,276 mt, up 11% from the same period in 2022-23 and down 47.3% from the five-year average. In December, AAFC revised lower its forecast for flax exports by 50,000 mt to 250,000 mt, while cumulative shipments have reached 19.3% of this volume and is behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Canada's soybean exports surged to 1.178 mmt in November, the highest volume shipped in one year. Measured in the dollar value of shipments, 44% was shipped to China during the month. The 539,727 mt shipped to China was only slightly lower than the 556,435 mt shipped in November 2022, while over the first quarter of 2023-24, 871,468 mt has been shipped to China, up 13% from a year ago and the largest volume shipped to China over this period since 2018, or five years. Cumulative exports for 2023-24 total 2.004 mmt, up 3.9% from one year ago and 2.5% higher than the five-year average. AAFC left its forecast for 2023-24 exports unchanged at 4.8 mmt in December, while cumulative exports have reached 41.8% of this volume, well ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Corn exports totaled 205,291 mt, the largest volume shipped in four months. When measured in the value of shipments, 55.7% was shipped to Ireland with an additional 19% destined for the United Kingdom. Cumulative exports of 289,911 mt is down 9.5% from one year ago, while it is 21.8% higher than the five-year average for the first quarter. Cumulative exports have reached 15.7% of the forecast 1.850 mmt of exports, while behind the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Canada's corn imports totaled 419,544 mt in November, the largest monthly imports since June 2022 or 17 months. Cumulative imports over three months total 892,636 mt, up 182% from one year ago and 63.4% higher than the five-year average for this period. In December, AAFC reduced its forecast for corn imports by 300,000 mt to 2.5 mmt, while current imports have reached 35.7% of this forecast, slightly ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the forecast.

Canada's canola oil exports were reported at 262,445 mt in November, the smallest monthly shipment seen in five months. Cumulative shipments total 1.112 mmt, which is 24.2% higher than one year ago while 19.2% higher than the three-year average.

Canola meal exports are seen at 452,517 mt, also the lowest monthly volume shipped in five months. Cumulative exports total 1.898 mmt, up 8.5% from the same period last crop year and 15.8% higher than the three-year average.

Canada's ethanol imports in November totaled 186 million litres, down sharply from 275 million litres imported in the previous month and the lowest imports reported in nine months. Imports over the first 11 months of 2023 are pegged at 2.426 billion litres, up 49.6% from one year ago and 85.6% higher than the three-year average.

Biodiesel imports total 43,286 mt, the smallest volume imported in eight months. Imports for 2023 (Jan-Nov) total 744,045 mt, up 21.2% from a year ago and 37.7% higher than the three-year average.

Statistics Canada reports wheat exports (excluding durum) at 1.990 mmt, the smallest volume in three months. Measured in value, the largest destination is China, with 20.5% of the total value of shipments shipped to China. Cumulative exports are seen at 7.383 mmt, up 10.3% from a year ago and 21.5% higher than the five-year average. AAFC revised its forecast for 2023-24 exports higher by 2 mmt to 20 mmt in December, while exports as of November have reached 37% of this total and are well ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast. It is also interesting to see that this data implies unlicensed exports of a modest 140,400 mt.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CliffJamieson.

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