Canada Markets

The Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) reported week 18 wheat exports, covering activity for the week ending Dec. 3, at 641,400 metric tons (mt), which is the largest weekly volume delivered since week 40 of the 2019-20 crop year when 755,000 mt were reported shipped. Durum exports for the week were also robust at 118,000 mt, the largest volume reported during the 18 weeks of this crop year. Combined exports totaled 759,400 mt for the week.

As of week 18, wheat exports are up 12.5% from the same period last year and all-wheat exports, including durum, are up 3% from one year ago. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) most recent forecast shows a 17% drop in year-over-year all-wheat exports, although Statistics Canada has recently revised production higher and this will be revised this month. On Dec. 8, the USDA revised Canada's all-wheat export estimate higher by 500,000 mt to 23.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 8.2% from their estimate for 2022-23.

The October CGC Export of Canadian Grains and Wheat Flour report provides data by destination for the first three months of 2023-24, or Aug.1-Oct.31. First, while not shown, CGC data shows wheat exports (excluding durum) to nine countries during the first three months of the crop year where no exports were shown for the same period in the previous year. This represents 233,000 mt in total and shows an expanded list of customers over this period.

The attached chart shows the countries that were shipped the largest volumes of wheat during the first three months, which happened to be volumes exceeding 200,000 mt. It is interesting to note that the volume shipped to China during the first three months, or 536,400 mt, is the largest volume shipped to any destination while is a volume that is down 49.2% from the same period in 2022-23, as is shown by the brown line with markers, measured against the secondary vertical axis.

The year-over-year drop in volume to China is only one of three destinations where volumes have fallen year-over-year, which also includes Bangladesh and Peru.

The other eight countries shown have seen year-over-year volumes increase from 2.8% for Ecuador, to a 441.2% increase in year-over-year volume shipped to the United States, although the volume is low at 227,300 mt shipped to the U.S.

Key to offsetting the drop in volume to China early in the crop year, that has recently shown an appetite for U.S. soft red winter wheat, is a 15.2% increase shown for movement to Japan and a 164.5% year-over-year increase shown for Indonesia, that are traditionally two of Canada's largest customers.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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