Canada Markets

As seen on the attached chart, the Canada Western Red Spring 13.5%/Canada Prairie Spring Red 11.5% spread is calculated at $58.25 metric ton (mt) for the Northern Alberta region on Nov. 20, as reported by pdqinfo.ca in its daily price report.

The Nov. 20 report shows six of nine prairie regions with a regional bid for both classes of wheat, with the spread ranging from $51.91/mt in southeast Saskatchewan to $59.92/mt calculated for the southern Alberta Region.

The northern Alberta spread of $58.25/mt is the widest spread seen since Nov. 2, 2021, or over two years, when the spread reached $62.90/mt for the region, which is the widest spread calculated for the region over the previous five crop years.

The spread is determined by the relative fundamentals for the two crops and movements in the MGEX hard red spring wheat contract and the Kansas City hard red winter futures that are used to drive prices for the two classes.

In the U.S., the spread between the National Spring Wheat Index and the National HRW Index closed at $1.28/bushel USD on Nov. 20, or the widest spread seen since Feb. 16, 2022, after recovering from a minus-$0.3355 USD spread in May of this year (HRW over HRS). It is interesting to note that $1.28 represents a $64.54/mt CAD spread, only slightly wider than the $58.25/mt calculated.

It is also interesting to note that the current spread between the two U.S. indices has retraced only slightly more than 50% of the move from the July 2021 high to the March 2022 low. The next level of resistance on this chart is the 61.8% retracement line at $1.50/bu USD, which is equal to $75.51/mt CAD based on today's exchange rate.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CliffJamieson.

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