Canada Markets

Disappointing production in back-to-back years in India's tur or pigeon pea crop has led to a continued uptrend for large green lentils after reaching a February 2023 low of $48.50/cwt.

The government of India recently released its First Advance Estimates for 2023-24, which included a forecast for tur production of 3.421 million metric tons (mmt), which compares to the government's target of 4.3 mmt. Total kharif, or summer crop, pulse production was estimated at 7.118 mmt, which compares to the government's early target of 9.1 mmt. A combination of lower acres seeded combined with a disappointing monsoon coverage is behind the results, partially tied to the effects of the current El Nino pattern.

Today, the President of Pulse Canada, Greg Cherewyk released a statement on trade with India. Diplomatic tensions have added to uncertainty in the industry, weighed on prices as seen in red lentils and has stalled talks designed to create a long-term framework for "30 years of pulse trade between our nations."

The Frequently Asked Questions included indicate that there has been no disruption to both the pace and volume of shipments to India over the August-October period, with movement ahead of both last year and the five-year average.

The organization stated "The Canadian pulse industry believes that trade of agricultural goods must be prioritized despite geopolitical volatility. The seamless movement of agriculture and agri-food products is central to ensuring food security worldwide and it is the expectation of Canadian pulse growers, processors and exporters that governments will separate geopolitical tension from agri-food trade during adverse situations to maintain food supply resilience. It is our belief that decoupling the pulse trade from this diplomatic tension is in the best interest of the pulse industry and consumers in Canada and India."

As seen on the attached chart, large green lentils are reported at $64.50/cwt delivered to Saskatchewan plants on Monday, up $1 from last week's Saskatchewan government report. This move has taken out the most recent highs reached in January 2022, while nearing the highs reached in January 2017.

Today's price is $11.56/cwt below the record high reported by Saskatchewan Agriculture for April 2016 at $76.06/cwt.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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