Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported the September canola crush at 922,108 metric tons (mt), the largest September crush on record while the cumulative total for the first two months of the crop year, at 1.752 million metric tons (mmt), is the largest volume ever and up 22.8% from one year ago. September marks the ninth time on record that the monthly crush exceeded 900,000 mt, while the July 2023 monthly crush of 961,683 mmt remains the record for any month.

The September crush was well above the 793,876 mt crushed in September 2022, while also well above the volume needed this month to stay on track to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) forecast of 10 mmt, which is 39,000 mt higher than achieved in 2022-23 despite smaller production. The three-year average September crush is calculated at 786,001 mt.

The cumulative crush of 1.752 mmt is up 22.8% from a year ago and is 17.2% higher than the three-year average for this period, for the fastest start to a crop year on record.

Based on Statistics Canada data, the oil content is calculated at 42.3%, the highest percentage realized since August 2021, or 25 months. The cumulative oil content for 2023-24 is 42.1%, which compares to the 2022-23 content of 41.7% and the five-year average of 42.8%. It is interesting to note that the Canadian Grain Commission's Quality of Canadian Canola 2023, as of Oct. 19, shows the mean Eastern Canada oil content for No. 1 canola at 43.6% and the mean Western Canada oil content at 43.2%. It is possible that the average oil extraction will increase over time.

The incentive to crush remains extremely high. A ProphetX chart approximating the move in the ICE Canola Board Margin Index shows an average index for the month at $247.60/mt, which compares to $228.37/mt for the month of August and $263.12/mt for the same month in 2022.

Statistics Canada also reported soybean crush at 146,735 mt, up from the previous month and the largest September crush in seven years by a slim margin.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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