Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported that August merchandise exports of all goods increased by 5.7% while imports increased by 3.8%, with Canada's trade balance moving from a $437 million deficit to a surplus of $718 million, the first trade surplus reported since April and only the third surplus reported in 2023. This involves the activity that followed the strikes by West Coast dockworkers in July.

The broad farm, fishing and intermediate food product category shows exports falling modestly in August to $4.5498 billion, while up 7.1% from the same month in 2022.

The following is a summary of trade data for select crops and crop products, with a focus on crops where the monthly data provides a more complete picture when compared to the weekly Canadian Grain Commission data.

August exports of lentils totaled 44,670 metric tons (mt), the smallest monthly volume shipped in 18 months, partially tied to tight exportable supplies early in the crop year. The largest share, measured in dollars, was shipped to India, with 38% of the volume shipped in this direction. August exports were down 61.3% from a year ago and is 60.5% below the five-year average, while behind the pace needed to reach Agriculture and Agric-Food Canada's forecast of 1.4 mmt, which is down sharply from 2.256 mmt shipped in 2022-23.

Dry pea exports totaled 100,031 mt in August, down from the 167,735 mt shipped in July. Measured in value, 39% was shipped to China and 26% was shipped to Cuba, the two largest destinations. August exports were down 12.7% from the same month one year ago and 20.4% below the five-year average. AAFC has forecast 2023-24 exports at 1.9 mmt, down from 2.552 mmt shipped in the previous crop year, while cumulative exports are behind the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Chickpea exports in August totaled 10,354 mt, only slightly below the volume shipped in the previous month, while the smallest monthly volume shipped in 19 months. Measured in volume, the largest share was shipped to the United States, with 35% of the total sales shipped to the south. August shipments were down 47% from August 2022, while 10.8% higher than the five-year average. AAFC has forecast crop year exports at 120,000 mt, down from 229,000 mt in 2022-23, while the pace of movement is seen at the steady pace needed to reach this volume.

Mustard exports in August are seen at 6,269 mt, up from the previous month after July exports reached the lowest level seen in 11 months. Measured in value, U.S. exports accounted for 46% of the value shipped and Belgium shipments made up a further 28.5%. Exports in August were up 10.4% from the same month in 2022, while down 14.4% from the five-year average. AAFC's forecast exports at 125,000 mt are up 1,000 mt from 2022-23, while exports are slightly behind the pace needed to reach this volume.

Canary seed exports of 4,176 mt were the lowest monthly volume shipped in over 10 years. Measured in the dollar value of exports, Mexico was the largest destination, with 28.5% of the exports shipped to this country. August exports were down 70% from the volume shipped in August 2022 while down 63% from the five-year average. AAFC is estimating 2023-24 exports at 135,000 mt, down 16,000 mt from the previous year, while the current pace of exports is behind the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Flax exports in August totaled 13,836 mt, the smallest volume shipped in 10 months. A reported 78.6% of this volume was shipped to the U.S. Exports to China fell to 2,048 mt, the lowest seen since January of this year after reaching a high of 13,802 mt in April. Exports in August are up 20.6% from the same month a year ago while down 51.7% from the five-year average. Exports have reached 17.7% of the current AAFC forecast of 78,000 mt, well-ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Soybean exports in August were reported at 97,071 mt, up from the previous month but still the third lowest of the crop year. Of the dollar value shipped, 25.5% was shipped to Japan, 17% was shipped to Indonesia and a further 15% was shipped to Vietnam, the three largest destinations. Total exports for the 2022-23 crop year are calculated at 4.181 mmt, down slightly from the previous crop year and the smallest volume shipped in three years. Exports are down 1.4% from 2021-22, while 7.8% below the five-year average as well as below AAFC's 4.5 mmt forecast.

Corn exports in August totaled 114,334 mt, the lowest volume shipped in 11 months, while the largest August volume shipped in five years. The largest volume was shipped to the U.S., with 45.6% of the total dollar value shipped south. The second largest volume was shipped to Ireland and the United Kingdon, with 43% shipped in this direction. Total 2022-23 exports are seen at 2.850 mmt, up 49.2% from the previous year and 90.9% higher than the five-year average, while equal to the 2.850 mmt AAFC forecast.

Canada's corn imports in August totaled 280,291 mt, the largest monthly volume imported in 12 months. Imports for the 2022-23 crop year are seen at 2.077 mmt, down 66% from the previous year while 24% below the five-year average. This volume is very close to the 2.1 mmt forecast set by AAFC.

Canola oil exports totaled 272,637 mt. This volume is 28.9% higher than the same month in 2022 and 14.8% higher than the three-year average.

Canola meal exports are reported at 502,370 mt, the largest volume shipped in nine months. This volume is up 33% from the same month last year and is 28.3% higher than the three-year average.

Canada imported 231 million liters of ethanol in August, down 56 million from the previous month. During the first eight months of 2023 (January to August), imports total 1.741 billion liters, up 55% from the previous year and 96.9% higher than the three-year average for this period.

Imports of biodiesel totaled 78,889 mt, the smallest volume in five months. Cumulative imports of 586,297 mt are up 44% from the same period in 2022 while 40% higher than the three-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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