Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's August supply and demand tables show huge revisions to the balance sheets for wheat, durum and canola that stand out from all other crops.
With Statistics Canada's official estimates around the corner on Aug. 29, AAFC joined in along with a number of global forecasters in lowering its forecast for Canada's all-wheat production. AAFC lowered its forecast for durum production from 5.695 million metric tons (mmt) to 4.906 mmt. This would indicate an average yield of 30.5 bushels per acre (bpa), which is below the five-year average of 34.1 bpa and the 20-year trend yield of 37.9 bpa, while based on Statistics Canada's estimated seeded acres.
This forecast remains suspect, with some industry estimates coming in substantially lower as far back as a month ago while there has been crop deterioration faced since. This month, AAFC is estimating durum stocks to increase from a tight 240,000 mt to 400,000 mt in 2023-24, but watch for this to be revised lower in upcoming forecasts.
AAFC also revised its forecast for wheat (excluding durum) down by 1.3 mmt, to 28.3 mmt, close to unchanged from the previous year while despite and 8.3% increase in seeded acres. The average yield for wheat (excluding durum) is forecast at 50.6 bpa. This yield is only 1 bpa below the five-year average, while below the 20-year trend of 55.5 bpa.
All-wheat production of 33.209 mmt is down from the 35.331 mmt forecast last month, closer to the USDA's forecast of 33 mmt and remains above the 31.5 mmt forecast by the International Grains Council.
After revising their canola production estimate higher in July to 18.8 mmt, AAFC left their estimate unchanged this month. There remains a wide range of forecasts reported, from 16 mmt to 19 mmt, with AAFC at the upper end of the range. AAFC revised higher its forecast for 2022-23 canola stocks by a significant 1.1 mmt, to 1.750 mmt, with this revision carrying through to 2023-24 stocks.
An upward revision was expected. The Canadian Grain Commission reports cumulative producer deliveries of 18.3 mmt over the 2022-23 crop year, which reflects 99.5% of the volume available delivery which is defined as July 31, 2022 farm stocks added to estimated 2022 production. Commercial stocks reported as of July 31 are at 947,700 mt, above the AAFC forecast of 650,000 mt for total stocks. As well, producers have delivered 358,100 mt during the first two weeks of the 2023, which will be almost entirely old-crop deliveries.
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