Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported a 2.5% increase in April merchandise exports and a 0.2% drop in imports in April, with Canada's trade balance with the world jumping from $230.9 million to $1.940 billion, the largest trade surplus reported since June 2022. Exports of metals and non-metallic mineral products led the increase, up 13.6% from the previous month, while exports of energy products increased 6.4%, the first monthly increase seen in seven months.

Canada exported 157,382 metric tons of lentils in April, up from the previous month. When measured by the value of the exports, 38% was shipped to Turkey and a further 17% was shipped to India. Cumulative exports of lentils total 1.7 million metric tons (mmt), up 63% from one year ago, 16% higher than the five-year average and accounts for 75.6% of the current 2.250 mmt forecast set by AAFC, equal to the steady pace needed to reach this forecast. AAFC revised their forecast lower by 50,000 mt in May.

Chickpea exports totaled 21,617 mt, the smallest volume shipped in four months, with the largest destinations binge Lebanon, Turkey and the United States. Cumulative exports of 184,019 mt are up 75% from the previous year, 79% higher than the five-year average and represent 78.3% of the 235,000 mt forecast released by AAFC. Exports are ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast. AAFC revised its export demand forecast higher by 10,000 mt in May.

Dry pea exports in April totaled 247,162 mt, up from the previous month. Based on the value of the exports, 63% of exports was shipped to China, the largest volume shipped to this country since October 2022 or six months. Cumulative exports to all destinations total 2.170 mmt, up 42.8% from last year while 91.6% of the five-year average. Exports have reached 80.4% of the 2.7 mmt export forecast set by AAFC, well-ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current export forecast of 2.7 mmt. AAFC revised this forecast higher by 100,000 mt in May.

Canary seed exports in April reached 12,117 mt, up from the previous month. Measured in value of exports, 20% was shipped to Mexico, the largest share of any single destination. Cumulative exports after nine months total 112,043 mt, up 4% from last year and down 1.8% from the five-year average. Total exports have reached 77.3% of AAFC's 145,000 mt export forecast, which was revised 35,000 mt lower in its May report.

Mustard exports in April totaled 17,412 mt, down from the previous week with 50.5% of the value of exports destinated for the U.S. and 26% sent to Belgium. Cumulative exports of 123,398 mt are up 50.4% from the same period in 2021-22 and are up 44.2% from the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 91.4% of the 135,000 mt AAFC forecast, which was revised 5,000 mt higher in May.

Flaxseed exports in April reached 24,062 mt, the largest volume shipped in 16 months, with 49% of the dollar value shipped to the U.S. and 42% of the value shipped to China, with the volume shipped to China the largest in 23 months. The cumulative volume of flax shipped totals 140,627 mt, down 22.7% from one year ago and down 51.7% from the five-year average. Exports have reached 93.8% of the 150,000 mt AAFC forecast, which suggests exports will exceed this forecast with data for three shipping months left in the crop year.

April data shows soybean exports of 105,255 mt, close to the smallest monthly volume shipped this crop year and the smallest April movement seen in four years. Measured in value, the largest share or 36.7% was shipped to Japan. Cumulative exports of 3.839 mmt is up 6.6% from one year ago and 5.2% higher than the five-year average. After eight months of the row-crop crop year, exports have reached 80% of AAFC's 4.5 mmt export forecast, a forecast that was revised 100,000 mt higher in May.

Corn exports were reported at 318,637 mt, the largest volume shipped in one year. Of the value shipped, 90% was shipped to Ireland, Spain and the United Kingdom. After eight months, corn exports have reached 1.366 mmt, up 16.7% from last year and 71.2% higher than the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 73.9% of the current 1.85 mmt export forecast, ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this volume with four months remaining in the crop year.

Canada imported 207,961 mt of corn in the month of April, down from the previous month while the second-largest monthly imports seen this crop year. Cumulative imports are calculated at 1.267 mmt, down 70% from the same period last crop year and 30% below the five-year average. AAFC continues to hold to its import forecast of 2 mmt.

Canola oil exports in April totaled 266,210 mt, the smallest volume shipped in four months. Cumulative exports total 2.407 mmt, up 24.7% from the same period in 2021-22 and 2.5% higher than the five-year average.

Canola meal exports are reported at 449,714 mt in April, down from the previous month. Cumulative exports of 4.038 mmt are up 20.8% from last year and 10% higher than the three-year average.

Ethanol imports totaled 172 million litres in April, down from the 2023 high of 210 million litres imported last month. Cumulative imports of 715 million litres in 2023 are up 45.6% from one year ago while 83% higher than the three-year average for the January through April period.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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