Canada's barley exports have closely tracked the pace achieved in 2021-22 during most of this crop year although are seen pulling away from the previous trend. In week 28, or the week-ending Feb. 12, Canada exported 122,800 metric tons, the largest volume shipped in eight shipping weeks, while only the eighth time in 28 weeks that the weekly volume has exceeded 100,000 mt.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is forecasting barley exports to increase by 1.067 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2022-23 crop year to 3.670 mmt, with current estimates showing a 2.654 mmt increase in 2022-23 supplies as production rebounded from the 2021 drought.
Note that this forecast or target includes the export of products; during the last five years, the volume of grain exports has accounted for an average of 75% of the volume reported for total exports. Based on this average, the target for grain exports would be 2.7525 mmt for 2022-23 (75% of 3.670 mmt), while the 1.867 mmt shipped as of week 28 is ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.
On average during the past five years, exports have tended to be weighted more heavily in the last half of the crop year. The CGC's week 28 barley exports have averaged 45.9% of total exports for the crop year, including products.
This bears watching, should movement during the balance of the crop year follow the average pace, stocks could tighten more than expected and supplies may prove tighter than currently forecast.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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