Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported that both imports and exports of all goods were lower in December, while the trade deficit in global trade fell from $219 million to $160 million during the month. While energy exports led the overall drop in exports, Statistics Canada notes exports of farm, fishing and food products were down 9.9% for the month. At the same time, December exports in this category were up 41% from one year ago at $5.3014 billion and for the last quarter of 2022, were up 43.9% from a year ago at $16.7285 billion.

Each month, we look at exports for various crops and products, with a focus on crops that are not fully covered in weekly Canadian Grain Commission statistics.

Lentil exports in December totaled 231,547 metric tons, down from the previous month, but still the largest December exports seen in six years. Measured in dollars, 32% was shipped to India, accounting for 37% of the volume, while the largest exports to India in 14 months. During five months of the crop year, exports total 1.064 mmt, up 35.5% from the same period in 2021-22 and 28.7% higher than the five-year average. Cumulative exports are ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current export forecast.

Chickpea exports totaled 17,928 mt in December, down from the previous month, while the largest December volume shipped in at least 13 years. Measured in value, 29.3% was shipped to Turkey and 20% was shipped to the United States. Over the first five months, exports total 88,788 mt, up 88.8% from the same period in 2021-22 and 61.6% higher than the five-year average. Exports have reached 45.5% of the current 195,000 mt export forecast, ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Dry pea exports totaled 192,891 mt in December, down only slightly from the previous month while down sharply from the two previous months. Measured in value, 46.6% was shipped to China while 19.9% was shipped to Bangladesh. The low volumes shipped to China remain troublesome, with 726,298 mt shipped over the first five months of the crop year, which compares to the three-year average of 1.095 mmt. During the first five months of the crop year, exports totaled 1.250 mmt, up 25.3% from the same period last crop year while down 13.5% from the five-year average. Total exports have reached 50% of the current 2.5 mmt AAFC forecast, ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Mustard exports totaled 12,711 mt in December, falling lower for a second month. A reported 36% of this value was shipped to the U.S. while an additional 27% was shipped to Belgium. Over five months, 54,590 mt has been shipped, up 22.1% from 2021-22 and 17.6% higher than the five-year average. Total exports reached 50% of the 110,000 mt export forecast, ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the forecast.

Canary seed exports are reported at 18,906 mt in December, the largest volume shipped in four months. Roughly 34% was shipped to Mexico (by value), while close to 18% was shipped to Belgium, the next largest buyer. Over five months of this crop year, exports total 84,578 mt of canary seed, up 24% from one year ago and 25.7% higher than the five-year average. Roughly 50% of the current 170,000 mt AAFC export forecast has been achieved, ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Flax exports totaled 14,907 mt in December, the largest monthly volume shipped this crop year although sales remain depressed. By value, 84% of shipments were made to the U.S. Cumulative shipments of 58,228 mt are down 47.5% from one year ago and are down 65.3% from the five-year average. Cumulative exports account for just 15.5% of AAFC's 2022-23 export forecast, well-behind the forecast pace. There were no exports listed for China in December, although small volumes may be included in the "other" category. November data shows 1,451 mt shipped to China in the August-November period, down from 23,013 mt in the same period of 2021-22 and 76,741 mt shipped in 2020-21.

Soybean exports totaled 910,261 mt in December, down from the previous month, while the largest December volume shipped in four years. Statistics Canada notes exports spread across 10 countries in addition to a group of "other" countries with smaller volumes shipped. The value of product shipped to China accounted for only 26.3% of the total in December. A total volume of 998,034 mt has been shipped to China in 2022-23 (Sept-Dec), up 178% from one year ago and the largest volume shipped to China in this period in four years. Over four months, cumulative exports of 2.847 mmt are up 0.3% from last year and 0.3% below the five-year average. Exports have reached 64.5% of the 4.4 mmt AAFC export forecast, well ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Statistics Canada reported corn exports at 232,099 mt in December, fractionally lower than the volume shipped in the previous month. When considering the value of these shipments, 89.5% was shipped to Ireland and the United Kingdom. Cumulative shipments of 552,847 mt are unchanged from the volume shipped in this period last year while 31% higher than the five-year average. The pace of exports is only slightly behind the steady pace needed to reach the current 1.750 mmt export forecast.

Statistics Canada reports 135,797 mt of corn imports in December, the largest monthly volume imported in four months. Crop year imports over four months total 452,722 mt, down 74% from the same period last crop year. The current pace of imports is behind the pace needed to reach the current 2 mmt import forecast.

Canola oil exports totaled 216,616 mt, down only slightly from the previous month. Over five months, exports total 1.098 mmt, up 3.7% from the same period in 2021-22 and 13% below the three-year average.

Canola meal exports were pegged at 431,689 mt, down from the previous month. Cumulative exports totaled 2.163 mmt, 14% ahead of the same period last crop year and 7% higher than the five-year average.

Monthly data shows ethanol imports at 182 million litres, the largest volume imported in four months. Over the year 2022, imports totaled 1.804 billion litres, up 39% from 2021 and 45.2% higher than the three-year average.

Looking at wheat export data, total exports are reported at 8.254 mmt over the first five months of the crop year, which is 189,464 mt higher than reported by the CGC, or equal to the volume of unlicensed exports. This volume of unlicensed exports is down 38% from one year ago and is 39% below the three-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson

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