Canada Markets

Global Rapeseed/Canola Estimates Banking Heavily on Canada

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:
@CliffJamieson
The blue bars represent the volume that the current official Statistics Canada production estimates exceed the provincial estimate, based on yields only while using the official harvested acre estimates, plotted against the primary vertical axis. The brown line with markers represents the amount by which the official yield estimate exceeds the provincial estimates, plotted against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
The blue bars represent the volume that the current official Statistics Canada production estimates exceed the provincial estimate, based on yields only while using the official harvested acre estimates, plotted against the primary vertical axis. The brown line with markers represents the amount by which the official yield estimate exceeds the provincial estimates, plotted against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Biofuels International reports on the latest International Grains Council data that has pegged global consumption and trade at record levels, while ending stocks are also forecast to rise.

The piece points to IGC's "convenient rapeseed supply of 84.4 million metric tons" for 2022-23, although this does not jive with the remaining data, which points to global consumption of close to 83 mmt and ending stocks of 5.5 mmt. It is more likely that they are referring to production of 84.4 mmt, which is consistent with the 84.816 mmt forecast released by USDA.

Ending stocks are forecast to rise by 1.4 mmt or 34% from 2021-22 to 5.5 mmt, which is bearish but more favorable than the 7.163 mmt released by the USDA in November, where a slightly lower consumption estimate of 80.768 was utilized. Based on 83 mmt of use, ending stocks would be a bullish 6.6% of use based on IGC data.

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A great deal is riding on a sharp recovery in Canadian production, with the IGC using a 19.1 mmt estimate, equal to the current Statistics Canada estimate, while the USDA is using an estimate of 19.5 mmt.

Canada's official estimate will be updated on Dec. 2, when Statistics Canada releases its first estimates of the season where producer survey data is incorporated into the results.

As seen on the attached graphic, the average yield estimates released by the governments of the three prairie provinces range from 0.5 bushels/acre for Manitoba to 3.5 bpa for Alberta lower than the official estimates released by Statistics Canada in mid-September, based on August model data. When this yield differential is applied across the harvested acre estimates used in Statistics Canada's official estimates, we see that the production differential totals as much as 1 mmt across the three provinces.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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The blue bars represent the volume that the current official Statistics Canada production estimates exceed the provincial estimate, based on yields only while using the official harvested acre estimates, plotted against the primary vertical axis. The brown line with markers represents the amount by which the official yield estimate exceeds the provincial estimates, plotted against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson) 
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