Statistics Canada released the National supply and disposition of major grains for 2021-22 on Thursday, which includes August 31 stocks for the row crops and updated supply and demand tables. This data coincides with the August Canadian International merchandise trade release, which provided a first look at August import/export data, the final month of the crop year for corn and soybeans.
As seen on the attached graphic, corn stocks for August 31, or the end of the 2021-22 crop year, were reported at 2.746 million metric tons, a record level of stocks that are up 577,000 mt or 26.6% from the previous year, while well-above the five-year average of 2.324 mmt. Ending stocks for 2021-22 were higher than anticipated in Agriculture and Agri-Food analysis, with supply and demand tables released in September estimating a 2.2 mmt carry-out.
The largest growth came in commercial stocks, with farm stocks only 0.5% higher than the five-year average at 1.584 mmt while commercial stocks of 1.161 mmt were 55% higher than the five-year average.
Crop year supplies of corn were elevated due to record imports of corn at 6.2 mmt, due to the 2021 drought in 2021 on the prairies and lack of feed supplies. The previous import record was set in 2002-03 of 4.120 mmt, due to similar circumstances. As a result, feed use is estimated at 12.058 mmt, up 37.6% from the 2020-21 crop year and 38% higher than the five-year average. A positive feature is the increase in the human food and industrial use category, largely ethanol production, which increased by 7.8% from one year ago while is 8% higher than the five-year average.
Corn exports in 2021-22 were pegged at 1.737 mmt, up 20.8% from the previous crop year and 26.5% higher than the five-year average.
Canada's soybean ending stocks for 2021-22 were estimated at 297,800 metric tons, up only 4,000 mt from the previous crop year while 43.2% lower than the five-year average. This was lower than the 400,000 mt shown in AAFC's September supply and demand tables.
Ending stocks on farm increased by 28,600 mt over the past year, while commercial stocks fell by 24,600 mt over the same period.
The soybean crush of 1.858 mmt is 221,900 mt higher than achieved in the previous crop year, while is just 0.6% higher than the five-year average. Soybean exports of 4.281 mmt are down 381,200 mt from the previous year and 7.9% below the five-year average.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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