Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported Canada's August canola crush at 632,962 metric tons (mt), the smallest crush in three months. Despite attractive crush margins, tight stocks, a focus on harvest and perhaps even some routine maintenance led to a lower level of activity. This compares to the three-year average for the month of 774,027 mt (green bar) and the 833,333 mt needed this month to reach the most recent AAFC forecast (brown bar).

This data coincides with AAFC's most recent September forecast that included a 500,000 mt upward adjustment in the crush forecast to 10 million metric tons (mmt), a 1.445 mmt increase from the 2021-22 crush.

Following the slow start in August, crush will need to reach 851,549 mt/month over the remaining 11 months as shown by the brown bars on the attached chart. While the Canola Council of Canada reports current crush capacity at 11.1 mmt, Statistics Canada reports the monthly volume crushed surpassing the 850,000 mt level in only 15 months in the past, while never for more than four consecutive months.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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