The new-crop canola basis for November delivery has flat-lined across the Prairies in recent days, with new-crop futures doing the heavy lifting, while ahead of Statistics Canada's official seeded acre estimates to be released on April 26.
The attached chart shows the reported basis for three of the nine prairie regions reported by pdqinfo.ca, which includes the northern Alberta region, the strongest basis seen across the Prairies, the eastern Manitoba region, the strongest basis in the eastern Prairies, and the southeast Saskatchewan region, the weakest overall basis shown for the nine regions.
Reported basis for all three regions is shown at-or-near the strongest levels reported to-date, while have remained steady since mid-month.
The current northern Alberta basis of $12.89/metric ton under the November compares to its weakest level reached on Dec. 15 of $31.85/mt under. The southeast Saskatchewan basis of $31.90/mt under compares to its low of $51.14/mt reached on Dec. 7. The eastern Manitoba basis of $15.92/mt compares to its weakest level reached of $31.95/mt, also reached on Dec. 7.
While basis has remained steady, the November contract continues to surge. This week's close represents an 11th consecutive weekly increase and the $51.40/mt weekly gain is the largest seen during the life of the contract. During the past 11 weeks, this increase totals $249.50/mt. Today's high of $1,086.70/mt represents the highest ever trade for a November contract, while today's close is up $360.60/mt from the $723.60/mt contract low reached on Dec. 21, or four months ago.
While the front-end May contract only gained $33.20/mt during the past week, the contract reached an all-time high of $1,200.60/mt, the highest trade ever reached for any contract.
Despite the climbing new crop bids, which ranged from $1,032.70/mt ($23.42/bushel) to $1,051.71/mt ($23.85/bu) for November delivery on April 21 according to pdqinfo.ca data, some forecasts continue to point to a drop in seeded acres in 2022.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is forecasting acres to fall by 3.2% to 21.745 million acres, down from 22.479 ma seeded in 2021 and the five-year average of 22 ma. A recent Bloomberg survey of eight analysts is pointing to a 2.7% decline to 21.9 ma.
Statistics Canada will release its findings on April 26 at 8:30 Eastern Time.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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