Canada Markets

New Crop Rapeseed Continues to Push Higher

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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New-crop rapeseed for August delivery shows a bullish gap in trade formed on April 12 to reach a fresh contract high. The August/November futures spread (first study) closed at EUR 33.75/mt, close to the EUR 36/mt high reached in March. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Oil World has reported this week that European sunflower oil prices has fallen sharply in recent weeks, as supplies of Ukraine sunoil have increased, while Russia is also seen offering product at sharply reduced levels. The range of sunoil is shown to have fallen from 34.5% to 25% according to Oil World data to $1,900/metric ton to $2,250/mt, down from highs reached in March.

ProphetX charts (not shown) show rapeseed oil FOB Rotterdam increasing $28.25/mt on April 12 to $2,184.75/mt USD, the highest seen in five days, while is down only 4.3% from the all-time high reached in March at $2,283/mt.

Despite the addition of a new crop in the months to come, the uptrend in new-crop canola and rapeseed continues. As seen on the attached chart, new-crop August rapeseed gapped higher on Tuesday, while closing higher for a fourth session, up EUR 22.25/mt to $849.75/mt, a contract high while also an all-time high on the continuous August chart.

The brown line on the first study shows the August/November spread strengthening EUR 4/mt on Tuesday to EUR 33.75/mt, the largest inverse seen in more than one month while is nearing the EUR 36/mt inverse reached on March 8, the strongest inverse seen during the life of the contract. During the past five years, this spread has traded as a carry (November trading over the August) in four of the five years on this date, averaging minus EUR 2.30/mt during the five years (November over the August). In 2021, this spread traded at a modest EUR 2.75/mt inverse on this date.

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