Canada Markets

2021-22 Export Projections Based on the 26-Week Pace

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The brown bars of this chart represent the current AAFC forecast for 2021-22 exports for the crops selected, while the blue bars represent projected crop year exports based on the average pace of movement during the past five years during the first 26 weeks of the crop year. Projections show higher-than-forecast exports of durum, barley and canola, although supplies will be a limiting factor. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 26 Grain Statistics Weekly, covering activity for the week ending Jan. 30 shows total exports of principal field crops through licensed facilities at 406,100 metric tons (mt), up from 326,000 mt shipped in the previous week while 7.9% below the four-week average, assuming the combined week 21 and 22 volumes are shipped evenly during these two weeks.

Total exports of the principal crops through licensed facilities are reported at 17.1265 million metric tons (mmt) during the first half of the crop year, down 11.493 mmt, or 40.2%, from the same period last crop year, while 26.5% below the five-year average volume shipped through license facilities. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's current forecast shows exports of all principal field crops down 35.4% from the previous crop year in 2021-22, although includes unlicensed exports and the export of products.

Across a number of select crops, cumulative exports through licensed facilities during the first 50% of the crop year range from 23.2% below year-ago levels for barley to as much as 72.8% lower for flax. Looking at the larger crops, exports of wheat through licensed facilities is down 42.2% from one year ago, the export of durum is down 56.1% and the export of canola is down 45.7%.

When movement during the first half of the crop year is considered during the past five years, we see that on average, licensed shipments of wheat accounted for 44.5% of total crop year exports, 43.8% for durum, 33.7% for oats, 35.1% for barley, 31.5% for flax, 50.6% for canola and 39.7% for dry peas.

When this average pace of movement is used to project forward for total crop year exports, we arrive at the blue bars on the attached chart which is compared to the current AAFC forecast for 2021-22. This study points to projected exports of durum, barley and canola based on movement during the first half of the crop year to be above the government's crop year forecast, although supplies will be a limiting factor.

The projected exports of wheat at 13.092 mmt is below AAFC's January forecast of 14 mmt, which includes unlicensed exports and the export of flour that will narrow the gap between the two volumes.

While not shown in this study, commercial stocks of durum (23.8%), oats (17.5%), flax (5.1%), canola (9.6%) and peas (2.6%) are higher than the three-year average for week 26, with the percentage change in brackets. Commercial stocks of wheat are only 5.4% lower than the three-year average and commercial stocks of barley are 15.6% lower.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at

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