Canada Markets

Canada's trade faced challenges in November due to the outages on both CN and CP track in the mountains of British Columbia, although the country's total exports rose 3.8% from the previous month and imports rose 2.4%. Canada's trade surplus increased by 35% to $3.1 billion. The trade balance has increased in five of the past six months, and is now the largest trade surplus seen since September 2008 or more than 13 years.

The country's exports rose to a record high of $58.6 billion, while the farm, fishing and intermediate food products category showed a 6% drop from the previous month to $3.850 billion, due to a lack of movement through the Port of Vancouver.

November lentil exports totaled 79,543 metric tons, the smallest monthly exports since August 2017. Similar volumes were shipped to Turkey, India, and Columbia this month, accounting for 38.4% of the total volume. Cumulative volumes exported since August total 649,475 mt, down 36.8% from the previous crop year and 17% below the five-year average. Current exports have reached 38.2% of the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) export target of 1.7 million metric tons (mmt), which was revised 200,000 mt lower in December, while the pace of exports is ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Dry pea exports in November were reported at 94,690 mt, the lowest volume shipped in four months, and the smallest November volume shipped in at least the past 12 years. The largest volume was shipped to the United States at 60,789 mt, likely the largest volume ever shipped in this direction, while exports to China continue to slide, reported at 18,234 mt this month. During the four months of the crop year, exports total 917,429 mt, down 40.2% from the same period last crop year and down 33% from the five-year average. Cumulative exports account for 43.7% of AAFC's export forecast of 2.1 mmt, which was revised 200,000 mt lower in December following the release of Statistics Canada's final production estimates. At the same time, the pace of shipment is well ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

November chickpea exports total 8,630 mt, falling for a fourth consecutive month and the smallest November shipments in seven years. Cumulative shipments total 40,550 mt, up 21.8% from the same period last crop year while 4.1% below the five-year average. Total sales have reached 25.3% of AAFC's forecast of 160,000 mt, revised 40,000 mt higher in December, while behind the steady paced needed to reach this forecast.

Mustard exports in November totaled 9,237 mt, the largest volume shipped in six months, although the smallest November shipments in 10 years. Cumulative exports total 33,048 mt, down 5.5% from last year and 13.2% below the five-year average. Cumulative exports for 2021-22 have reached 47.2% of the AAFC forecast of 70,000 mt, well ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

November's canary seed exports totaled 13,871 mt, the largest volume shipped in six months. A reported 39.5% or 5,446 mt of this volume was shipped to Mexico and is the largest monthly volume shipped to Mexico in just over 10 years. Cumulative exports total 43,209 mt, down 19% from last year and 15% below the five-year average. This volume has reached 36% of the current 120,000 mt export forecast from AAFC, slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Canada's wheat exports (excluding durum) totaled 919,756 mt, a slight uptick from the previous month but still close to the smallest monthly volume shipped since December 2014 that was reported for October. The largest volume shipped was 162,881 mt that can be viewed as traditional business to Japan, while 117,385 mt was shipped to Indonesia. Cumulative shipments at the end of November total 4.437 mmt, down 36.7% from the same period last year while AAFC is forecasting exports to fall by 32% year-over-year. The current pace of exports is behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Durum exports for November were reported at 220,871 mt, the smallest volume shipped in 14 months. Data shows 34.5% was shipped to Italy, the largest destination this month, while 25.6% was shipped to Morocco. During the first four months of the crop year, 1.111 mmt has been shipped, down 35.5% from the same period in 2020-21, while AAFC is forecasting exports to fall by 60% year-over-year. Cumulative exports are well-ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current export demand forecast.

Barley exports in November totaled 308,719 mt, down sharply from the 611,287 mt shipped in October. China remains the primary destination, with 91% of the total volume shipped to this country. Despite the official estimate for production being 35.3% lower year-over-year, cumulative exports over four months are 9.9% higher than the same period in the 2020-21 crop year, while the government is currently forecasting exports to fall by 50.8% in 2021-22, a forecast that also includes the export of barley products. Barley exports remain well ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Statistics Canada reports Canada's soybean exports at 966,573 mt in November, down only slightly from the volume shipped in October and close to the largest monthly exports seen since November 2018 when 1.5 mmt were shipped during the month. Exports were spread across several countries, with the top 10 destinations shipped roughly 80% of the product by value. By a narrow margin, the largest volume of 105,436 mt was shipped to China in November, the largest volume shipped to China in 11 months. During the first three months of the row-crop crop year, exports total 2.044 mmt, up 5.7% from the same period last year at a time when AAFC is forecasting exports to fall by 7% year-over-year to 4.2 mmt. In data for the first 25% of the crop year, exports have reached 49% of this target, well ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Corn exports in November were reported at 177,401 mt, the largest volume shipped in five months. Of this volume, 76% was shipped to Ireland and the United Kingdom. During the first three months of the row crop crop year, exports total 267,104 mt, up 18.6% from the same period last crop year, while AAFC is forecasting a 6.2% increase year-over-year to 1.5 mmt.

Corn imports in November totaled 570,414 mt, up sharply from the previous month and the largest monthly volume ever imported. This was above 500,000 mt for the first time since July 2003. During three months of the crop year, imports total 993,736 mt, on track to reach the current forecast of 3 mmt although should this pace continue, corn imports will be significantly higher than currently forecast.

Canola oil exports were reported at 193,955 mt in November, the lowest volume shipped in three months. Cumulative exports during four months total 838,459 mt, down 20% from the same period Last crop year and down 22% from the three-year average.

Soymeal exports totaled 368,409 mt in November, the lowest volume shipped in three months. Year-to-date, 1.581 mmt has been exported, down 6% from the same period last crop year and 1.1% below the three-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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