Canada Markets

DTN analysis often refers to the forecast wheat stocks for the eight largest global wheat exporting countries, which include Argentina, Australia, Canada, European Union, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and the United States. Following Thursday's USDA report, the stocks of these eight exporters are to fall to the lowest level in 14 years by the end of the 2021-22 crop year.

At the same time, it is interesting to note that this is taking place at a time when export demand is seen rising. This month, USDA revised higher their forecast for global trade by 2.31 million metric tons to 205.47 million metric tons (mmt), which would be the highest on record.

If we look at the eight largest exporters, production fell by 2.1% or 8.2 mmt from 2020-21 to the most recent forecast for 2021-22. This group is forecast to export 181.26 mmt, down 0.4% from the previous crop year. Meanwhile, the overall global export demand is forecast to increase by 1.8%.

As seen on the attached chart, the eight largest exporters met 90.15% of the global exports of wheat in 2020-21, which was the highest percentage calculated in 12 years. Estimates for 2021-22 show a drop to 88.2% of global exports covered by these eight shippers, which is the lowest calculated in seven years.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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