There were few changes to this month's Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada supply and demand estimates, but one major change in the forecast was a lower revision in canola exports of 1 million metric tons (mmt), while domestic crush was revised 1 mmt higher, leaving ending stocks unchanged this month at 500,000 metric tons (mt).
This move was expected and one that the USDA also made earlier in the month. The Canadian Grain Commission's week 15 statistics shows cumulative exports at 1.9305 mmt for the period ending Nov. 14, down 47.2% from the same period in 2020-21. This compares to domestic disappearance of 2.8049 mmt, down only 7.1% from the previous year.
The interesting thing about this revision is that the pace of exports and domestic crush were ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the previous October forecast during the first 15 weeks of this crop year. Cumulative exports were 55,500 mt higher than the steady pace needed to reach the previous 6.5 mmt export forecast. At the same time, total domestic disappearance as of week 15 was 584,035 mt ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the October forecast based on the October forecast. While the crushers are clearly winning the battle for deliveries during the first 15 weeks, this month's revisions are suggesting that export demand or capabilities are expected to slow further during the balance of the crop year.
No change was made to the estimate for ending stocks, which are forecast to end the crop year (July 31, 2022) at 500,000 mt, which is an extremely tight 3.5% of annual use.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada increased its forecast for the crop year average track Vancouver price for a second month to a record $1,000/mt, which they compare to their 2020-21 average of $730/mt and their five-year average of $556/mt. The Nov. 22 track price is reported at $1,108.80/mt with eight months remaining in the crop year.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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