The Nov. 3 Farm Market News reported on the DTN Canada site shows the spot soft red winter delivered bid in Ontario mostly at $0.90/bushel (bu) over the December Chicago soft red winter contract, or $8.71/bushel, while new crop basis is reported at $1.35/bu over the July contract, or $9.21 1/2/bu. This is based on Wednesday's weaker futures close, that saw the front-month contract shed 10 1/2 cents to $7.81/bu USD and the July end 6 1/4 cents lower at $7.86 1/2/bu USD.
Wet conditions across areas of the province have slowed both row crop harvest and wheat planting in past weeks. According to Agricorp's website, the southern-most areas of the province, or areas A, B and C on the website map, have until Nov. 7 to plant wheat and qualify for production insurance.
DTN's weekly analysis shows last week's SRW front-month close was at the 98th percentile of the five-year range. While the odds may be stacked against the crop when it comes to higher prices, this week's move has resulted in a fresh contract high on the December contract on Nov.2 although a reversal followed in Tuesday's trade and Wednesday's trade saw follow-through selling lead prices lower yet.
The spread between the light blue line and the lower dark black line represents the difference between spot bids in 2021 and the 10-year average. Based on the Nov. 3 old-crop bid, this price is $2.06/bu or 31% higher than average.
A similar situation is seen in the spread between the brown line and the black line, or the forward bid and the long-term average spot bid. July 2022 delivery is indicated at $9.21 12/bu, which compares to the 10-year average of $6.54/bu to $6.80/bu during the week 26 to 30 period, or July delivery.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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