Canada Markets

Ontario Old-Crop/New-Crop SRW Bids Versus Average

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The light blue line represents the weekly soft red winter wheat spot price for Ontario, reported by the government through 41 weeks and projected forward using ProphetX cash data, in CAD/mt. The brown line represents the new-crop bid, defined as the price for new crop one year forward. The lower black line represents the 10-year average SRW price. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The Nov. 3 Farm Market News reported on the DTN Canada site shows the spot soft red winter delivered bid in Ontario mostly at $0.90/bushel (bu) over the December Chicago soft red winter contract, or $8.71/bushel, while new crop basis is reported at $1.35/bu over the July contract, or $9.21 1/2/bu. This is based on Wednesday's weaker futures close, that saw the front-month contract shed 10 1/2 cents to $7.81/bu USD and the July end 6 1/4 cents lower at $7.86 1/2/bu USD.

Wet conditions across areas of the province have slowed both row crop harvest and wheat planting in past weeks. According to Agricorp's website, the southern-most areas of the province, or areas A, B and C on the website map, have until Nov. 7 to plant wheat and qualify for production insurance.

DTN's weekly analysis shows last week's SRW front-month close was at the 98th percentile of the five-year range. While the odds may be stacked against the crop when it comes to higher prices, this week's move has resulted in a fresh contract high on the December contract on Nov.2 although a reversal followed in Tuesday's trade and Wednesday's trade saw follow-through selling lead prices lower yet.

The spread between the light blue line and the lower dark black line represents the difference between spot bids in 2021 and the 10-year average. Based on the Nov. 3 old-crop bid, this price is $2.06/bu or 31% higher than average.

A similar situation is seen in the spread between the brown line and the black line, or the forward bid and the long-term average spot bid. July 2022 delivery is indicated at $9.21 12/bu, which compares to the 10-year average of $6.54/bu to $6.80/bu during the week 26 to 30 period, or July delivery.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at

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