Canada Markets

April-July Feed Wheat Disappearance

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the April-July wheat disappearance in feed channels for 2020-21 and for the previous five years, while the brown bars represent the volume of durum moved into feed channels over this same period. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

On Sept. 8, Statistics Canada reported 2020-21 July 31 stocks of all-wheat increasing 3.7% year-over-year to 5.7 million metric tons (mmt), with stocks of durum up 2% to 752,000 metric tons (mt) and stocks of wheat excluding durum up 4% to 4.954 mmt.

This release has since been viewed as a source of bearish news weighing on U.S. wheat futures and warrants a further look. Statistics Canada reported that exports increased 10.1% to 26.4% in 2020-21, while reporting the year-over-year change in stocks was largely due to a 4.6% increase in opening supplies to 40.8 mmt.

In advance of this report, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada had forecast stocks at 4.933 mmt (674,000 mt of durum and 4.259 mmt of wheat), while some private estimates were as much as 1 mmt below Statistics Canada's estimate.

When Statistics Canada released their March 31 stocks estimates on May 5, Canada's all-wheat stocks were reported at 16.231 mmt, while current tables show the March volume is now reported at 16.465 mmt, for a 234,000 mt increase, of which 131,000 mt is durum and 103,000 mt is wheat.

The attached chart shows the disappearance of wheat in feed channels in the April through July period of 2021 based on Statistics Canada estimates. Over the period shown, this disappearance has increased for four consecutive years to 1.1074 mmt in 2019-20. Current estimates would imply this disappearance has plunged by 66% from the 2020-21 crop year to 376,400 mt, well below the five-year average of 743,260 mt and the lowest volume in 11 years or since 2009-2010.

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