The attached chart compares Saskatchewan Agriculture's first yield estimates for the crop year for selected crops to Statistics Canada's estimates released on Aug. 30, based on July model results, as well as the five-year average final yield for the province reported by Statistics Canada (grey bars).
The estimates will vary based on the methodology used, with the province's boots-on-the-ground method compared to Statistics Canada's model results that utilizes satellite data. As well, Saskatchewan government data has the benefit of time, with Statistics Canada data based on July model results.
When hard red spring wheat is excluded, as Statistics Canada has yet to report estimates by class, the Saskatchewan government's estimated yields range from 20.2% higher than Statistics Canada for soybeans to 32.6% lower for durum (blue bars compared to the brown bars) for the select crops shown on the attached graphic. The estimates for flax yields are close, with Saskatchewan Ag's estimate just 1.3% below Statistics Canada.
The provincial government has estimated average yield for HRS at 27 bushels per acre (46.96), durum at 19 bpa (40.04), oats at 55 bpa (92.6), barley at 38 bpa (67.4), canola at 20 bpa (41.5), soybeans at 25 bpa (24.5), peas at 21 bpa (37.06) and lentils at 817 lbs/acre (1352.8), with the five-year average in brackets.
Two things should be considered. First, Statistics Canada is poised to release fresh model results on Sept. 14, based on August model results. This should partially close the gap between the two estimates as the timing of the results becomes closer.
As well, over the past five years, the Saskatchewan government's first yield estimates, released between August 27 and September 9, tend to be lower than Statistics Canada's final yield estimates for almost all crops. Exceptions include winter wheat, mustard, soybeans and peas, where the province's first estimates are higher than the final Statistics Canada estimates on average.
Crops such as hard red spring wheat, durum, oats, barley, canola and chickpeas show the province's first yield estimates below Statistics Canada's final estimate in each of the past five years. During the past five years, the province's first estimate for HRS yield averages 10.9% below the final official estimate, durum at 11.1% below and canola at 17.2% below the final official estimate.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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