Canada Markets

July Merchandise Exports Broken Down

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:

In the month of July, Statistics Canada reports that Canada's imports of all goods increased by 4.2% to a record high while exports increased by 0.6%, with Canada's trade surplus falling to $778 million in July from the $2.6 billion reported in June. Data for the first seven months of 2021 shows a trade surplus in five of the seven months, while the July surplus is the second lowest.

The broad Farm, fishing and intermediate food products exports were reported at $3.861 billion for the month, the lowest dollar amount reported in 2021 monthly data, while up 0.2% from July 2020.

The following is a look at July trade data for various crops and products, which is the last month of the crop year for all crops other than the row crops.

Canadian lentil exports were reported at 156,860 metric tons in July, the smallest volume shipped in five months. The largest volume was shipped to India (62,724 mt) and United Arab Emirates (32,880 mt), with these two countries accounting for 61% of the total for the month. Exports for the 2020-21 crop year total 2.324 million metric tons, down 18.7% from the previous year and 5.4% higher than the five-year average. Exports reached 96.8% of AAFC's forecast of 2.4 mmt, which was reduced by 300,000 mt in its August forecast. Exports for 2021-22 are forecast to fall to 2.0 mmt in 2021-22.

Dry pea exports totaled 82,359 mt, which is the smallest monthly shipments of dry peas since July 2017. The largest shipments were sent to Bangladesh at 19,000 mt, while 16,803 mt was shipped to Nepal. China, the largest buyer over the course of the year totalling 72.6% of licensed shipments, was shipped only 6,478 mt in July, down for the third month to an extremely light volume for this destination. Exports for 2020-21 total 3.580 mmt, down 5.3% from the previous year while 7% higher than the five-year average. This volume is 98.1% of the AAFC forecast of 3.650 mmt, with exports to fall to 2.450 mmt in 2021-22 due to lower supplies.

Chickpea exports were reported at 17,998 mt, up from the previous month and the largest July movement seen in at least 11 years. Statistics Canada reports exports to 27 different countries in July, with Pakistan and the United States shipped two-thirds of the total volume. Exports over the course of the crop year are shown at 158,767 mt, up 51.8% from the previous crop year and 28.3% higher than the five-year average. Total crop year shipments exceeded the 155,000 mt forecast use by AAFC. The export forecast for 2021-22 is shown to fall by 20,000 mt to 135,000 mt.

Exports of canary seed totaled 11,022 mt in July, with shipments limited by tight stocks, while the smallest monthly exports seen since August 2020. Despite higher prices, this was the largest July volume shipped in seven years. Cumulative exports for 2020-21 total 159,073 mt, 1.4% below the volume shipped in 2019-20 while 4.2% higher than the five-year average. This volume falls just 0.6% below the 160,000 mt forecast from AAFC, while 2021-22 exports are forecast to fall by 20,000 mt to 125,000 mt, but will be totally dependent on available supplies.

Mustard shipments in July totaled 7,015 mt, the smallest monthly volume shipped since August 2020. Cumulative shipments total 109,859 mt in July, down 2.4% from the previous crop year and 5.6% below the five-year average. This volume reached 98% of the 112,000 mt forecast used by AAFC, while exports are to fall to 75,000 mt in 2021-22 due to lower supplies.

Flax shipments totaled 18,219 mt in the last month of the crop year, up slightly from the previous month but the smallest July shipments seen in data checked for the past nine years. The U.S. and Belgium were shipped a similar volume, accounting for 82.5% of the month's total, while shipments to China at 755 mt is the smallest volume shipped since September 2019. Cumulative exports total 504,221 mt, up 44.3% from 2019-20 and 2.3% higher than the five-year average, while falling short of AAFC's 540,000 mt forecast. AAFC is currently forecasting exports to fall to 400,000 mt due to reduced supplies available in the 2021-22 crop year.

Corn exports in July totaled 65,692 mt in July, the 11th month of the crop year, with close to 64% of the volume shipped to western Europe countries of Spain and Ireland. This is the lowest monthly shipments seen in four months. After 11 months, 1.393 mmt has been shipped, up 116.2% from the previous crop year and 5.9% higher than the five-year average for this period, while seem to lag the pace needed to reach AAFC's 1.7 mmt export forecast was revised 300,000 mt higher in their August forecast which may suggest they know something about the potential for August shipments. AAFC has forecast 2021-22 exports to fall by 300,000 mt to 1.4 mmt, although the possibly exists that this will be revised higher along with the potential for the country's corn crop.

Canada imported 138,356 mt of corn in July, up slightly from the previous month. Cumulative imports total 1.481 mmt, on track to reach the 1.6 mmt forecast released by AAFC in August, which was revised 100,000 mt higher from the volume reported in July. Imports for 2021-22 are forecast at 2 mmt, while could increase from there as the industry comes to term with the year-over-year drop in barley production.

Soybean exports were reported at 109,297, the smallest monthly volume shipped over the 11 months of this crop year while the smallest July shipments realized in five years. Volumes shipped to the U.S., China, Japan and Indonesia were relatively close, while accounting for 43.3% of the total, with shipments of various volumes reported to 32 countries in August. So far this crop year, exports total 4.327 mmt, up 28.5% from the 2019-20 crop year and 0.6% higher than the five-year average. AAFC has forecast total exports at 4.6 mmt; it would seem that exports will fall short of this forecast.

Canola oil exports during July reached 290,144 mt, the largest in three months. Over the crop year, exports totaled 3.394 mmt, equal to the volume shipped in 2019-20 and 5.5% higher than the three-year average.

Canola meal exports were reported at 398,392 mt for July, the third-lowest monthly volume shipped this crop year. Over the 12 months of 2020-21, exports total 5.310 mmt, 8.1% higher than 2019-20 and 13.3% higher than the three-year average.

Statistics Canada reported ethanol imports at 107 million litres, down from the 118 million litres imported for the previous month. Over the first seven months of 2021, imports total 648 million litres, up 3.3% from the same period in 2020 while 5.4% below the three-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .