Statistics Canada reported 816,993 metric tons of canola were crushed in July, the smallest monthly crush in five months as producers swept bin bottoms to fill trucks. Despite tight stocks, the July crush was still higher than the 806,868 mt crushed in July 2020.
Over the course of the 2020-21 crop year, a record 10.4096 million metric tons were crushed, up 2.8% from 2019-20, 8.8% higher than the three-year average and 14.4% higher than the five-year average. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's forecast called for a 10.2 mmt crush, which is shown by the horizontal green line on the chart which indicated a steady crush of 850,000 mt needed to reach this forecast.
For the first time ever, the 2020-21 crop year saw monthly volumes crushed above 900,000 mt, with six of the 12 months of the crop year reaching this level, the highest being the 957,952 mt crushed in March.
Statistics Canada numbers show oil production of 4.528 mmt during the 2020-21 crop year, which represents 43.5% of the seed crushed. This is down slightly from the 43.8% calculated for 2019-20 and the three-year average of 44%.
Over the first 15 days of August, Canadian Grain Commission data shows domestic disappearance at 376,900 mt, down 63,100 mt or 14.3% from the same period in 2020-21. A ProphetX chart approximating the move in the Canadian Canola Board Margin Index shows an average index of $15.24/mt since Aug. 2. During this period in 2020-21, this average was $68.61/mt.
Statistics Canada reported 142,464 mt of soybeans crushed in July, the largest monthly crush in seven weeks or since December 2020. During the first 11 months of the crop year for row crops (September through August), 1.507 mmt has been crushed, which is behind the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast of 1.8 mmt. The crush over 11 months is 6.2% below the same period in 2019-20 and 14% below the five-year average.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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