Canada Markets

July 31 Grain Stocks Projections

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars on this chart project 2020-21 ending stocks of select grains based on the historical (five-year average) ratio of commercial stocks to total stocks as of July 31. The brown bars represent the five-year average stocks, while the grey bars represent the current AAFC forecast. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Over the past five years, July 31 commercial grain stocks for the select grains found on the attached chart as reported by Statistics Canada have averaged in a range from 19.7% of total stocks of barley to 59.4% of the total stocks reported for wheat. For example, Statistics Canada reported commercial stocks of barley for July 31, 2016, accounted for 10.7% of total grain stocks, while on July 31, 2020, commercial stocks of barley accounted for 28.1% of total stocks.

Over the five years, the most consistent results were found in barley, with a difference of 17.4 percentage points from the lowest to the highest percentage calculated, while this difference is calculated at 17.6 points for peas and 18.3 percentage points for wheat (excluding durum). The least consistent results were calculated for canola, with a range of 41.3 percentage points from the lowest percentage calculated over the past five years to the highest percentage calculated.

The blue bars on the attached chart reflect projected stocks of grain for select crops as of July 31, 2021, based on the five-year average of the relationship between commercial stocks and total stocks. The Canadian Grain Commission's week 52 Grain Statistics Weekly reports the year-end commercial stocks of grain, while the unknown is what remains on farm.

Across all crops shown on the chart, the projected stocks (blue bars) are higher than AAFC's current forecast (grey bars). Those crops where the projected stocks are closest to current government estimates are flax (13,869 mt), peas (88,689 mt) and wheat (excluding durum, 132,793 mt), with the difference reported in brackets.

The results of this study lead to the largest differences between the projected stocks and AAFC's forecast for canola (766,090 mt) and oats (735,201 mt), with the difference shown in brackets.

Historical relationships such as this may mean little this crop year, with record exports and prices achieved for some of the crops in this study. Farm stocks should prove to be much tighter than normal.

Statistics Canada will release July 31 grain stocks on Sept. 8.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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