The July Agriculture and Agri-Food supply and demand tables has forecast that total grain stocks for all principal field crops (grains, oilseeds, pulse crops and special crops) across Canada are to fall by 4.328 million metric tons (mmt) or 30.5% to 9.870 mmt by the end of the crop year. This is July 31 for all grains except for corn and soybeans, where the crop year ends at the end of August.
Interruptions in grain movement over recent weeks due to wildfires in British Columbia has resulted in grain backed up on the prairies, with commercial stocks instore primary elevators on the prairies higher than one would expect as we near the end of the crop year.
Only Manitoba stocks are lower than normal as of week 50, or the week ending July 18. Week 50 stocks across Manitoba of 476,100 metric tons are down 21.5% from the same week in 2020 and 22.8% below the three-year average.
The western prairies have not fared as well, with stocks in both Saskatchewan and Alberta higher than both 2020 and the three-year average.
Total primary stocks of Canada's principal field crops, at 3.0204 million metric tons, are 4.1% higher than the same week in 2019-20 and 5.9% higher than the three-year average. For stocks to fall as forecast, farm stocks will be required to be reported significantly lower, or upward revisions will be required in the previous year's production estimates.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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