Canada Markets

As of Sept. 28, the Saskatchewan government estimates that 89% of the province's crop is harvested, which they compare to 47% completed this time last year, the five-year average of 67% and the 10-year average of 69%.

Looking back in historical data, an estimated 89% was reported as harvested as of Sept. 27, 2012, the last time this pace of progress was seen, while 91% was reported complete as of Sept 29, 2011. When the size of the crop is taken into consideration, it puts a whole different spin on this data.

While 2020 yields and overall production remains up for debate, the current official data from Statistics Canada estimates production of major crops in Saskatchewan will total 37.5 million metric tons in 2020. This compares to the 27.4 mmt crop taken off in 2012, the last time harvest reached the current pace. Not only is this year's pace ahead of recent years, but a larger crop is also coming off the field.

As seen on the attached chart, peas, lentils, durum and barley are close to being finished as of early this week. An estimated 88% of the spring wheat is off with an estimated 9% either swathed or ready to straight combine, along with 80% of the canola, with a further 18% of the crop either swathed or ready to straight combine. Weather continues to support ongoing activity.

Another interesting find in this week's data is the rapid pace at which the northern areas are being harvested. The largest estimated gains over the past week were realized in the two northern regions of the six regions of the province. The Northeast Region saw an estimated 30% of the crop come off over the week, while the Northwest region saw 23% of the crop harvested over the past week, the two regions showing the largest gains.

When compared to the five-year average pace, the Southwest Region, while the closest region to wrapping up harvest, is 17 percentage points ahead of average, the lowest percentage shown for the six regions, while the Northeast Region is 29 points ahead of average, the area of the province that is the fastest relative to its five-year average.

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DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what you think of the most recent Statistics Canada model-based production estimates. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this topic on the poll, found on the lower-right side of your DTN Home Page. We thank you for your input.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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